Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankElonSpamferrariChampions2026Flaznorp
Record (consensus markets)41% (616–869, n=1485)41% (1541–2184, n=3725)43% (11778–15356, n=27134)55% (13369–10733, n=24102)
Consensus PnL$8.4M$27K-$9.5M$1.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #919was PM monthly #87PM monthly #14
Sides with the consensus88% (29 of 33 open)53% (9 of 17 open)67% (8 of 12 open)66% (93 of 140 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Crypto +2 pts n=82, ROI +4%
  • MLB +3 pts n=15, ROI −7%
Weakest topic—Geopolitics −24 pts, n=16—NFL −24 pts, n=12
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%46% of 3394 at avg 46¢, ROI +2%100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%56% of 3115 at avg 55¢, ROI +22%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)35% (won 8% of 1203)4% (won 97% of 237)30% (won 9% of 919)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)15% (won 38% of 503)26% (won 100% of 1446)15% (won 37% of 455)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)23% (won 58% of 768)40% (won 100% of 2198)14% (won 63% of 439)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)27% (won 91% of 920)30% (won 100% of 1675)42% (won 94% of 1302)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankElonSpamferrariChampions2026Flaznorp
Orleans: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Ugo Blanchet
opposite sides · consensus Buvaysar Gadamauri
——Ugo Blanchet $3Buvaysar Gadamauri $5.8K
Matsuyama: Billy Harris vs Liam Broady
opposite sides · consensus Billy Harris
——Liam Broady $2.0KBilly Harris $1.7K
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $141Yes $2.8K
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
——Cavaliers $2.0KHornets $156
Counter-Strike: maybe vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Play-In
opposite sides · consensus maybe
——maybe $64MASONIC $3
Orleans: Edas Butvilas vs Cosme Rolland De Ravel
same side · consensus Cosme Rolland De Ravel
——Cosme Rolland De Ravel $26KCosme Rolland De Ravel $5.9K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $1.2KUnder $12K
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Ugo Humbert
same side · consensus Ugo Humbert
——Ugo Humbert $7.1KUgo Humbert $3.1K