Counter-Strike: maybe vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Play-In

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold maybe (61%) · maybe at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

maybe74¢MASONIC26¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

maybe

Consensus Traders

maybe 61%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$90.91

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 74¢

+62% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

maybe74%

MASONIC26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

maybe11 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,612

Combined PnL-$13.93

MASONIC7 traders

Total Value$751.03

Total Shares1,462

Combined PnL-$76.98

maybe — 61%MASONIC — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	maybeavg 46.3¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$104.65	62% 253-157 (410)
31 319113331313111	maybeavg 45.8¢	$1.7K	$562.58	+$182.65	58% 517-377 (894)
SU suitcase6628CTR	MASONICavg 56.2¢	$528.63	$531.1	+$2.47	57% 213-163 (376)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	MASONICavg 65.5¢	$864.65	$470.55	-$394.11	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 65.5¢	$777.29	$362.13	-$415.17
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 56¢	$87.36	$108.42	+$21.06
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	maybeavg 46.7¢	$126.37	$155.47	+$29.1	47% 2267-2575 (4842)
alpheclabs2	maybeavg 47¢	$286.7	$137.25	-$149.45	47% 1777-1989 (3766)
Future-Tarot-TraderARB<$100	maybeavg 54.2¢	$127.96	$132.47	+$4.51	64% 1350-768 (2118)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 54.2¢	$75.68	$97.01	+$21.33
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 45¢	$52.28	$35.46	-$16.82
BI biying88888CTR	MASONICavg 54.2¢	$94.93	$108.5	+$5.25	46% 338-403 (741)
CI cigarettesCTR	MASONICavg 55¢	$165	$88.5	-$76.5	50% 66271-66796 (133067)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	maybeavg 36.1¢	$43.4	$61.93	+$18.53	50% 24127-24236 (48363)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	maybeavg 25.4¢	$30.07	$61.88	+$31.81	46% 33777-39454 (73231)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	maybeavg 47.8¢	$97.5	$45.92	-$49.05	47% 255-289 (544)
GA Gaditima<$100	maybeavg 24.5¢	$16.91	$33.13	+$16.22	47% 8797-9986 (18783)
PA pauleta23<$100	maybeavg 60.8¢	$30	$31.1	+$1.1	65% 25736-13843 (39579)
PA panpidaras1<$100	maybeavg 28¢	$8.4	$15.15	+$6.75	47% 337-383 (720)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	maybeavg 51.7¢	$7.75	$10.8	+$3.05	52% 6198-5722 (11920)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	MASONICavg 79.8¢	$11.28	$10	-$1.28	53% 1651-1490 (3141)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	MASONICavg 54¢	$11.88	$6.49	-$5.39	48% 40309-43267 (83576)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	MASONICavg 53¢	$4.24	$4.44	+$0.2	53% 28380-25663 (54043)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	MASONICavg 55¢	$3.72	$2	-$1.72	52% 49502-46467 (95969)

JabJabich

maybe

Invested

$2,114.79

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$104.65

Record

62%

253-157 (410)

319113331313111

maybe

Invested

$1,741.45

Value

$562.58

PnL

+$182.65

Record

58%

517-377 (894)

suitcase6628CTR

MASONIC

Invested

$528.63

Value

$531.1

PnL

+$2.47

Record

57%

213-163 (376)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$864.65

Value

$470.55

PnL

-$394.11

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

Both legs:

MASONIC$777.2965.5¢-$415.17

maybe$87.3656¢+$21.06

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

maybe

Invested

$126.37

Value

$155.47

PnL

+$29.1

Record

47%

2267-2575 (4842)

alpheclabs2

maybe

Invested

$286.7

Value

$137.25

PnL

-$149.45

Record

47%

1777-1989 (3766)

Future-Tarot-TraderARB<$100

maybe

Invested

$127.96

Value

$132.47

PnL

+$4.51

Record

64%

1350-768 (2118)

Both legs:

maybe$75.6854.2¢+$21.33

MASONIC$52.2845¢-$16.82

biying88888CTR

MASONIC

Invested

$94.93

Value

$108.5

PnL

+$5.25

Record

46%

338-403 (741)

cigarettesCTR

MASONIC

Invested

$165

Value

$88.5

PnL

-$76.5

Record

50%

66271-66796 (133067)

omnibus-076daa<$100

maybe

Invested

$43.4

Value

$61.93

PnL

+$18.53

Record

50%

24127-24236 (48363)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

maybe

Invested

$30.07

Value

$61.88

PnL

+$31.81

Record

46%

33777-39454 (73231)

glennyorkshire<$100

maybe

Invested

$97.5

Value

$45.92

PnL

-$49.05

Record

47%

255-289 (544)

Gaditima<$100

maybe

Invested

$16.91

Value

$33.13

PnL

+$16.22

Record

47%

8797-9986 (18783)

pauleta23<$100

maybe

Invested

$30

Value

$31.1

PnL

+$1.1

Record

65%

25736-13843 (39579)

panpidaras1<$100

maybe

Invested

$8.4

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$6.75

Record

47%

337-383 (720)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

maybe

Invested

$7.75

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$3.05

Record

52%

6198-5722 (11920)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$11.28

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

1651-1490 (3141)

lryyyCTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$11.88

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$5.39

Record

48%

40309-43267 (83576)

Pan9XCTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$4.24

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

28380-25663 (54043)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$3.72

Value

PnL

-$1.72

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that maybe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.