Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpndb1shineforever
Record (consensus markets)45% (572–710, n=1282)52% (6563–6075, n=12638)63% (989–573, n=1562)53% (72–63, n=135)
Consensus PnL$7.9M$3.6M$3.2M$137K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #10PM monthly #90PM monthly #217
Sides with the consensus78% (28 of 36 open)73% (105 of 144 open)72% (54 of 75 open)69% (9 of 13 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=98, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22NFL −9 pts, n=139Geopolitics −7 pts, n=14
Settled positions, side won97% of 582 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%38% of 123 at avg 36¢, ROI −1%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)29% (won 11% of 465)13% (won 15% of 168)63% (won 4% of 77)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 204)16% (won 40% of 255)20% (won 39% of 256)2% (won 67% of 3)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 202)16% (won 62% of 260)24% (won 58% of 314)2% (won 50% of 2)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)39% (won 94% of 637)43% (won 93% of 550)33% (won 100% of 41)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpndb1shineforever
Jaguars vs. Ravens
opposite sides · consensus Jaguars
Ravens $292KJaguars $305——
Exact Score: Al Kholood Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $628—Yes $14K
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $319—Yes $11K
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $357—Yes $9.8K
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Heat
Warriors $3.5KHeat $79——
Exact Score: Al Ittihad Saudi Club 0 - 0 NEOM SC?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $395—Yes $1.3K
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $407K—No $335K—