Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 11 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Al Kholood Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club?

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 5.3¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 5

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$50.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

77.9¢ → 5.3¢

-93% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$48.7K

Total Shares51,431

Combined PnL+$32.3K

No11 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares49,612

Combined PnL$-35.8K

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 19.1¢	$4.9K	$24.1K	+$19.2K	— 13-3 (16)
shineforever	Yesavg 14.1¢	$2.0K	$13.3K	+$11.3K	58% 83-61 (144)
DI dips.	Yesavg 91.8¢	$7.0K	$7.2K	+$216.63	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
morito181	Yesavg 34.4¢	$539.7	$1.5K	+$932.96	61% 858-552 (1410)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 88.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$99.16	83% 81-17 (98)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 86.7¢	$30.2K	$1.4K	$-28.8K	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
WH whig	Yesavg 85¢	$471.56	$532.03	+$49.65	59% 412-283 (695)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 9.8¢	$44.99	$436.54	+$391.55	75% 110-36 (146)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 65.5¢	$5.9K	$420.24	$-5.5K	50% 36333-35815 (72148)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 58.6¢	$144.8	$233.88	+$89.08	52% 173-159 (332)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 84.1¢	$1.2K	$58.15	$-1.1K	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$5.84	$56.32	+$58.02	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$45.99	$26.94	-$19.05	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 43.7¢	$129.94	$12.18	-$111.96	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$34.83	$11.48	-$22.15	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$90.5	$11.02	-$79.48	63% 712-413 (1125)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 89.9¢	$343.53	$8.9	-$179.64	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$8.32	$1.64	+$2.28	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$0.33	$0.43	+$0.1	47% 2130-2428 (4558)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$4,857.78

Value

$24.1K

PnL

+$19.2K

Record

—

13-3 (16)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$1,984.9

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$11.3K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$6,951.18

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$216.63

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$539.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$932.96

Record

61%

858-552 (1410)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$1,381.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$99.16

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$30,228.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-28.8K

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

whig

Yes

Invested

$471.56

Value

$532.03

PnL

+$49.65

Record

59%

412-283 (695)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$44.99

Value

$436.54

PnL

+$391.55

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$5,905.66

Value

$420.24

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

50%

36333-35815 (72148)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$144.8

Value

$233.88

PnL

+$89.08

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$1,192.73

Value

$58.15

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$56.32

PnL

+$58.02

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$45.99

Value

$26.94

PnL

-$19.05

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$129.94

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$111.96

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$34.83

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$22.15

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$90.5

Value

$11.02

PnL

-$79.48

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$343.53

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$179.64

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$8.32

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$2.28

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.6%

5.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1404.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

1504.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.