Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 15 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw?

15 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 3.1¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 6

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$46.8K

Combined PnL

$5.5K

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 3.1¢

-94% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 26 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$45.5K

Total Shares46,746

Combined PnL+$24.7K

No15 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares44,846

Combined PnL$-19.3K

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (24 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT btna	Yesavg 51.1¢	$9.1K	$17.4K	+$8.3K	71% 42-17 (59)
shineforever	Yesavg 36.3¢	$3.6K	$9.6K	+$6.1K	58% 83-61 (144)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 52.5¢	$3.4K	$6.3K	+$2.9K	60% 911-595 (1506)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 29.3¢	$1.8K	$6.1K	+$4.3K	63% 179-106 (285)
morito181	Yesavg 44.9¢	$1.0K	$2.2K	+$1.1K	61% 858-552 (1410)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 37.2¢	$534.89	$1.4K	+$866.79	52% 173-159 (332)
xxNyx	Yesavg 66.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$670.96	82% 1794-403 (2197)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 53.7¢	$17.4K	$940.11	$-16.5K	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 38.2¢	$206.21	$526.07	+$319.86	83% 81-17 (98)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 43¢	$156.95	$353.42	+$211.76	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
DI dips.	Yesavg 89.4¢	$246.48	$267.07	+$20.59	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 19.8¢	$618.4	$103.2	-$481.52	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 71.5¢	$1.3K	$52.2	$-1.2K	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 43.3¢	$780.12	$52.19	-$701.99	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 52.9¢	$892.1	$48.93	-$843.17	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 4.3¢	$51.44	$34.8	-$16.64	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 18.7¢	$380.89	$33.13	-$179.01	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 27.9¢	$321.36	$29.58	-$255.45	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$181.01	$12.5	-$168.51	63% 712-413 (1125)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$5.18	$8.02	+$2.85	59% 3711-2576 (6287)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 4.9¢	$15.8	$3.19	+$96.72	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$16.42	$1.6	+$997.48	47% 1679-1862 (3541)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 19.7¢	$10.16	$0.73	-$3.89	39% 1048-1650 (2698)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 9.4¢	$1.32	$0.41	-$0.91	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$9.99	$0.4	-$9.59	74% 2420-861 (3281)

btna

Yes

Invested

$9,128.34

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$8.3K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$3,592.21

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$3,373.69

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,840.48

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

63%

179-106 (285)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$1,003.3

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

61%

858-552 (1410)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$534.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$866.79

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$1,465.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$670.96

Record

82%

1794-403 (2197)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$17,414.72

Value

$940.11

PnL

$-16.5K

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$206.21

Value

$526.07

PnL

+$319.86

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$156.95

Value

$353.42

PnL

+$211.76

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$246.48

Value

$267.07

PnL

+$20.59

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$618.4

Value

$103.2

PnL

-$481.52

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,287

Value

$52.2

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$780.12

Value

$52.19

PnL

-$701.99

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$892.1

Value

$48.93

PnL

-$843.17

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$51.44

Value

$34.8

PnL

-$16.64

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$380.89

Value

$33.13

PnL

-$179.01

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$321.36

Value

$29.58

PnL

-$255.45

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$168.51

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.18

Value

$8.02

PnL

+$2.85

Record

59%

3711-2576 (6287)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$96.72

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$16.42

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$997.48

Record

47%

1679-1862 (3541)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$3.89

Record

39%

1048-1650 (2698)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.91

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$9.59

Record

74%

2420-861 (3281)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 26 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (24 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.3%

3.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2227.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

2327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.