Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Warriors (52%). 8 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Warriors (-3.5)

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (47%) · Heat at 49¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 6

Warriors52¢Heat48¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.5K

Combined PnL

$7.22

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 48.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralHeat at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors52%

Heat49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat8 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares41,780

Combined PnL-$30.86

Warriors9 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares19,441

Combined PnL+$38.08

Heat — 47%Warriors — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (14 on Heat) disagree here.

whaleHeat 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHeat 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Heatavg 48¢	$13.7K	$13.9K	+$143.03	48% 347-378 (725)
AC Ackbar	Warriorsavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$50	47% 23-26 (49)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Heatavg 50.2¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$94.8	60% 4623-3029 (7652)
BR BreakTheBank	Warriorsavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$19.35	42% 630-874 (1504)
nehcnehcCTR	Heatavg 50.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$91.14	61% 4150-2619 (6769)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Heatavg 48.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.95	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50.7¢	$586.53	$596.2	+$9.67
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 48.4¢	$586.8	$588.08	+$1.27
HI hi774c	Warriorsavg 50¢	$916.03	$952.67	+$36.64	46% 5201-6053 (11254)
RN1	Warriorsavg 50.2¢	$502.5	$520	+$17.5	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 49¢	$428.83	$454.73	+$25.89	54% 18232-15346 (33578)
KingVon1	Warriorsavg 53.2¢	$425.98	$412	-$13.98	57% 356-270 (626)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Warriorsavg 51¢	$346.63	$353.43	+$6.8	53% 656-578 (1234)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Heatavg 48¢	$288	$291	+$3	51% 1905-1854 (3759)
NM NM-PCTR	Heatavg 48¢	$273.73	$276.59	+$2.85	64% 9930-5532 (15462)
38 38791873984189	Warriorsavg 51.2¢	$428.7	$195.99	-$4.21	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Heatavg 48.7¢	$93.16	$92.79	-$0.37	50% 25844-25552 (51396)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Heatavg 45.1¢	$73.12	$79.41	+$6.29	51% 25823-24512 (50335)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Heatavg 48¢	$24.28	$7.91	+$0.27	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
RL RLWG<$100	Warriorsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.6	+$0.1	50% 8307-8363 (16670)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Heat

Invested

$13,731.31

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$143.03

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

Ackbar

Warriors

Invested

$5,200

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

47%

23-26 (49)

SunlineTickerCTR

Heat

Invested

$3,812.43

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$94.8

Record

60%

4623-3029 (7652)

BreakTheBank

Warriors

Invested

$1,973.55

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$19.35

Record

42%

630-874 (1504)

nehcnehcCTR

Heat

Invested

$2,035.93

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$91.14

Record

61%

4150-2619 (6769)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,173.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.95

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

Both legs:

Warriors$586.5350.7¢+$9.67

Heat$586.848.4¢+$1.27

hi774c

Warriors

Invested

$916.03

Value

$952.67

PnL

+$36.64

Record

46%

5201-6053 (11254)

RN1

Warriors

Invested

$502.5

Value

$520

PnL

+$17.5

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$428.83

Value

$454.73

PnL

+$25.89

Record

54%

18232-15346 (33578)

KingVon1

Warriors

Invested

$425.98

Value

$412

PnL

-$13.98

Record

57%

356-270 (626)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Warriors

Invested

$346.63

Value

$353.43

PnL

+$6.8

Record

53%

656-578 (1234)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Heat

Invested

$288

Value

$291

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

NM-PCTR

Heat

Invested

$273.73

Value

$276.59

PnL

+$2.85

Record

64%

9930-5532 (15462)

38791873984189

Warriors

Invested

$428.7

Value

$195.99

PnL

-$4.21

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

sentrioCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$93.16

Value

$92.79

PnL

-$0.37

Record

50%

25844-25552 (51396)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$73.12

Value

$79.41

PnL

+$6.29

Record

51%

25823-24512 (50335)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$24.28

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

RLWG<$100

Warriors

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

8307-8363 (16670)

Research grade

NeutralHeat at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (14 on Heat) disagree here.

whaleHeat 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHeat 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.