Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 16 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club end in a draw?

16 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 1.1¢ · $63K held · ends Nov 7

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.2K

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 1.1¢

-98% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 27 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$61.2K

Total Shares61,877

Combined PnL+$28.2K

No16 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares57,937

Combined PnL$-32.4K

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (26 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 53% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
morito181	Yesavg 42¢	$8.3K	$19.6K	+$11.3K	61% 871-555 (1426)
shineforever	Yesavg 56.9¢	$6.5K	$11.3K	+$4.7K	58% 87-64 (151)
DI dips.	Yesavg 88.9¢	$8.6K	$9.5K	+$864.01	47% 10585-12110 (22695)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 64.4¢	$3.8K	$5.8K	+$2.0K	— 6-0 (6)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 24.3¢	$1.2K	$4.6K	+$3.4K	60% 188-123 (311)
BT btna	Yesavg 54.4¢	$2.4K	$4.4K	+$2.0K	69% 42-19 (61)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 30¢	$777.31	$2.6K	+$1.8K	83% 89-18 (107)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 21.9¢	$407.04	$1.8K	+$1.4K	74% 111-38 (149)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 38.8¢	$467.6	$1.2K	+$725.11	51% 174-170 (344)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 69¢	$19.2K	$649.77	$-18.5K	51% 25600-24316 (49916)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 59.5¢	$10.7K	$324	$-10.3K	50% 535-533 (1068)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 94¢	$173.86	$182.98	+$7.12	61% 930-602 (1532)
WH whosay	Yesavg 56.9¢	$94.67	$161.53	+$66.86	56% 1144-885 (2029)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 23.4¢	$654.99	$91	-$563.99	50% 21104-21351 (42455)
└ No leg	Noavg 23.4¢	$674.08	$61.88	-$570.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$22.02	$29.12	+$6.67
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 31.8¢	$1.0K	$73.29	-$961.04	58% 12052-8655 (20707)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 67.4¢	$1.6K	$53.67	$-1.6K	48% 60745-65398 (126143)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR	Noavg 4.4¢	$148.96	$45.45	+$342.96	42% 1223-1712 (2935)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 76.1¢	$1.8K	$35.48	$-1.2K	58% 46317-33437 (79754)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$83.99	$21.59	-$62.4	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 9.8¢	$79.75	$14.6	-$65.15	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 22.9¢	$17.87	$1.64	-$16.23	63% 765-453 (1218)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 11.3¢	$34.51	$0.88	-$4.67	41% 2329-3363 (5692)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$66.4	$0.71	-$12.05	47% 1713-1907 (3620)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 27.1¢	$33.59	$0.65	-$9.14	47% 2258-2536 (4794)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 23.8¢	$59.23	$0.65	-$7.95	41% 1232-1796 (3028)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$8,326.9

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$11.3K

Record

61%

871-555 (1426)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$6,526.94

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

58%

87-64 (151)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$8,550.3

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$864.01

Record

47%

10585-12110 (22695)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$3,760.38

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

—

6-0 (6)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,184.18

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

60%

188-123 (311)

btna

Yes

Invested

$2,434.03

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

69%

42-19 (61)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$777.31

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$407.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

74%

111-38 (149)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$467.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$725.11

Record

51%

174-170 (344)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$19,154.08

Value

$649.77

PnL

$-18.5K

Record

51%

25600-24316 (49916)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$10,710

Value

$324

PnL

$-10.3K

Record

50%

535-533 (1068)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$173.86

Value

$182.98

PnL

+$7.12

Record

61%

930-602 (1532)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$94.67

Value

$161.53

PnL

+$66.86

Record

56%

1144-885 (2029)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$654.99

Value

$91

PnL

-$563.99

Record

50%

21104-21351 (42455)

Both legs:

No$674.0823.4¢-$570.65

Yes$22.0274¢+$6.67

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$1,029.12

Value

$73.29

PnL

-$961.04

Record

58%

12052-8655 (20707)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,610.81

Value

$53.67

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

48%

60745-65398 (126143)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR

Invested

$148.96

Value

$45.45

PnL

+$342.96

Record

42%

1223-1712 (2935)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,800

Value

$35.48

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

46317-33437 (79754)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$83.99

Value

$21.59

PnL

-$62.4

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$79.75

Value

$14.6

PnL

-$65.15

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$17.87

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$16.23

Record

63%

765-453 (1218)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$34.51

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$4.67

Record

41%

2329-3363 (5692)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$66.4

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$12.05

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$33.59

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$9.14

Record

47%

2258-2536 (4794)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$59.23

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$7.95

Record

41%

1232-1796 (3028)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 27 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (26 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 53% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4334.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

4434.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.