Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankKasonWongRN1S-Works
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)54% (29–25, n=54)48% (17936–19365, n=37301)75% (2542–853, n=3395)
Consensus PnL$7.7M$83K$14.9M$3.7M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #860PM monthly #28 + pinnedPM monthly #73
Sides with the consensus81% (39 of 48 open)83% (5 of 6 open)57% (51 of 90 open)50% (1 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • NBA +51 pts n=17, ROI +50%
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
Weakest topic———Crypto −1 pts, n=46
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%92% of 25 at avg 50¢, ROI +52%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)4% (won 100% of 1)10% (won 57% of 2594)6% (won 14% of 145)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)36% (won 78% of 9)22% (won 94% of 5704)16% (won 48% of 367)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)56% (won 100% of 14)35% (won 99% of 9204)23% (won 60% of 509)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)4% (won 100% of 1)33% (won 100% of 8622)55% (won 96% of 1235)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankKasonWongRN1S-Works
Texans vs. Chargers
opposite sides · consensus Chargers
Chargers $294K—Texans $7.1K—
Spread: 76ers (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bulls
Bulls $103K—76ers $910—
Spread: Texans (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Chargers
Chargers $100K—Texans $1.5K—
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-11-08?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $13K—No $21K—
76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $1.0KOver $161—
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
same side · consensus Patriots
Packers $143K—Packers $13—
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
same side · consensus Seahawks
Seahawks $124K—Seahawks $996—
Packers vs. Patriots
same side · consensus Patriots
Packers $104K—Packers $2.9K—