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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | ndb1 | pollo07 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 66% (877–458, n=1335) | 36% (278–491, n=769) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.0M | $5.6M | $4.1M | $115K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #12 | PM monthly #76 |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (42 of 63 open) | no open consensus position | 71% (27 of 38 open) | 54% (13 of 24 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | Elections −3 pts, n=70 |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 45% of 406 at avg 46¢, ROI +7% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 51% (won 1% of 207) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 3% (won 45% of 11) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 2% (won 44% of 9) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 44% (won 96% of 179) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.