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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | ndb1 | RN1 | TheWindKnowsmyName | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (573–710, n=1283) | 65% (902–484, n=1386) | 47% (13886–15398, n=29284) | 69% (182–82, n=264) |
| Consensus PnL | $9.4M | $4.8M | $14.8M | -$96K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #101 | PM monthly #31 + pinned | was PM monthly #953 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (23 of 34 open) | 71% (107 of 151 open) | 54% (14 of 26 open) | 56% (220 of 392 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 88% of 177 at avg 68¢, ROI +27% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) | 12% (won 33% of 21) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) | 14% (won 84% of 25) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) | 12% (won 90% of 21) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) | 62% (won 99% of 110) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | RN1 | TheWindKnowsmyName |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? opposite sides · consensus No | No $407K | No $335K | — | Yes $853 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | No $1.0M | — | Yes $9 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | Yes $64K | — | No $61 |
| Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $22K | — | — | No $4 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $53 | — | No $204 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $278K | Yes $11K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | — | No $2 | — | No $8 |