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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | ndb1 | primm | Vale54holi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (546–663, n=1209) | 65% (870–459, n=1329) | 50% (1053–1054, n=2107) | 38% (187–304, n=491) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.2M | $4.2M | $3.5M | $113K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #61 | PM monthly #119 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (36 of 53 open) | 75% (24 of 32 open) | no open consensus position | 64% (14 of 22 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — | Mentions −1 pts, n=40 |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 99% of 955 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 35% of 264 at avg 36¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 5% (won 94% of 50) | 61% (won 1% of 161) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 41% (won 99% of 392) | 3% (won 14% of 7) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 49% (won 99% of 469) | 4% (won 73% of 11) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 5% (won 100% of 44) | 32% (won 96% of 85) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | primm | Vale54holi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $3.1K | No $2.0M | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $56 | No $1.5M | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $7.5K | Yes $820K | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $378K | — | — | No $47 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | No $327K | Yes $1.4K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $241K | Yes $503K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $3.4K | No $7.5K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other same side · consensus Yes | — | Yes $2.1K | — | Yes $1 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $2 | No $35 | — | — |