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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Kettle | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 43% (119–160, n=279) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 56% (101–79, n=180) |
| Consensus PnL | $146K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #987 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #373 |
| Sides with the consensus | 88% (7 of 8 open) | 85% (52 of 61 open) | 64% (7 of 11 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NFL −1 pts, n=60 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 33% of 339 at avg 31¢, ROI +9% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 61% (won 1% of 208) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 7% (won 75% of 8) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 28% of 18) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 26% (won 93% of 29) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 71% of 21) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 42% (won 96% of 47) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 27% (won 98% of 92) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 24% (won 96% of 27) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Kettle | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $29K | Yes $36K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $28K | No $34K | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $6.6K | Yes $274K | — | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $188K | Commanders $3.8K | — |