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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
KrassBreakTheBankRN1CORGII
Record (consensus markets)76% (390–122, n=512)45% (526–640, n=1166)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)62% (393–245, n=638)
Consensus PnL$14K$10.6M$13.4M$4.5M
Tracked asHand-pickedPM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #68
Sides with the consensus98% (43 of 44 open)72% (73 of 102 open)53% (62 of 117 open)0% (0 of 4 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicMentions −5 pts, n=80———
Settled positions, side won80% of 641 at avg 76¢, ROI +4%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%
Entries under 30¢8% (won 13% of 54)10% (won 85% of 53)10% (won 56% of 2534)9% (won 92% of 36)
Entries 30–50¢7% (won 45% of 44)36% (won 98% of 192)22% (won 94% of 5497)56% (won 99% of 223)
Entries 50–70¢14% (won 65% of 91)35% (won 99% of 187)36% (won 99% of 8897)33% (won 100% of 133)
Entries 70¢ and up71% (won 94% of 452)20% (won 100% of 107)31% (won 100% of 7736)2% (won 100% of 7)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketKrassBreakTheBankRN1CORGII
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cardinals $59KCowboys $12K—
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cardinals $3.0KCowboys $1.4K—
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Bills $51KBills $18K—
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $51KMagic $228—
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $13KMagic $161—