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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
NatoAlfistaCORGIIBreakTheBankprimm
Record (consensus markets)50% (4078–4117, n=8195)62% (393–245, n=638)45% (526–640, n=1166)50% (941–941, n=1882)
Consensus PnL$26K$4.5M$10.6M$3.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #994PM monthly #68PM monthly #1PM monthly #181
Sides with the consensus64% (18 of 28 open)25% (1 of 4 open)73% (72 of 99 open)54% (7 of 13 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won94% of 2419 at avg 46¢, ROI +43%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 81% of 261)9% (won 92% of 36)10% (won 85% of 53)5% (won 93% of 43)
Entries 30–50¢48% (won 94% of 1153)56% (won 99% of 223)36% (won 98% of 192)41% (won 99% of 366)
Entries 50–70¢41% (won 97% of 993)33% (won 100% of 133)35% (won 99% of 187)49% (won 99% of 433)
Entries 70¢ and up0% (won 83% of 12)2% (won 100% of 7)20% (won 100% of 107)5% (won 100% of 41)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketNatoAlfistaCORGIIBreakTheBankprimm
Chiefs vs. Broncos
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
Broncos $89—Chiefs $465KBroncos $6.8K
Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
Broncos $120—Chiefs $152K—
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
opposite sides · consensus Heroic
Heroic $246B8 $22K——
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Broncos
Broncos $27—Chiefs $1.2K—
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
same side · consensus Magic
Magic $167—Magic $76K—
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
Magic $188—Magic $51K—
Celtics vs. Magic
same side · consensus Celtics
Magic $141—Magic $24K—
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
Magic $84—Magic $13K—
Chargers vs. Rams: O/U 42.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $104——Over $3.0K
Chargers vs. Rams
same side · consensus Chargers
Chargers $20——Chargers $1.1K
Spread: Rams (-7.5)
same side · consensus Rams
Rams $73——Rams $4