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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PMTraderAdam | sainttroplay | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 83% (703–147, n=850) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $30K | $4.4M | $3.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 87% (48 of 55 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position | 88% (130 of 147 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Mentions −5 pts, n=42 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 81% of 932 at avg 76¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 17% of 106) | 0% | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 50% of 60) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 71% of 92) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 72% (won 96% of 674) | 0% | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | PMTraderAdam | sainttroplay | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.3K | — | — | No $202K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.4K | — | — | Yes $85K |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.2K | — | — | Yes $33K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.6K | — | — | No $32K |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.5K | — | — | Yes $30K |