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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| StudyPrediction | BreakTheBank | RN1 | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (4359–3146, n=7505) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 62% (393–245, n=638) |
| Consensus PnL | $51K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $4.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #1000 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 78% (28 of 36 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) | 53% (57 of 108 open) | 25% (1 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=82 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 55% of 6575 at avg 51¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 13% of 1875) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 22% (won 47% of 1468) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 65% of 1105) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 93% of 2127) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | StudyPrediction | BreakTheBank | RN1 | CORGII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $189 | No $184K | — | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $59K | Cowboys $12K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $28 | No $40K | — | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $3.0K | Cowboys $1.4K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $11 | Yes $77K | — | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 | — |