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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| TheFOMCGambler | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 75% (90–30, n=120) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $4.6K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #912 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 95% (35 of 37 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 63% (29 of 46 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −2 pts, n=22 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 79% of 124 at avg 82¢, ROI +16% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 6% of 16) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 2% (won 50% of 2) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 33% of 3) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 83% (won 92% of 103) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | TheFOMCGambler | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $190 | — | No $184K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $337 | — | No $10K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $141 | — | Yes $2.2K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $79 | — | Yes $38K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $770 | — | Yes $21K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 |