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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| balerinacapuchina | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 81% (175–40, n=215) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 47% (13860–15341, n=29201) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $36K | $5.8M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #429 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 81% (51 of 63 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 67% (4 of 6 open) | 88% (145 of 164 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 83% of 164 at avg 75¢, ROI +4% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 22% of 18) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 2% (won 25% of 4) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 16% (won 85% of 26) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 71% (won 94% of 116) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | balerinacapuchina | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $9.4K | — | — | No $202K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.1K | — | — | No $114K |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $2.2K | — | — | Yes $32K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.0K | — | — | No $29K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.8K | — | — | No $25K |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $2 | Yes $65 | — | — |