Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
beachboy4BreakTheBankcryingbabydicer87Flaznorp
Record (consensus markets)no settled market45% (573–710, n=1283)47% (6681–7576, n=14257)52% (6506–6010, n=12516)
Consensus PnL—$7.9M$20K$3.3M
Tracked as—PM monthly #3was PM monthly #699PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position62% (18 of 29 open)91% (136 of 150 open)75% (172 of 230 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic——Crypto −2 pts, n=3902Other Sports −13 pts, n=22
Settled positions, side won—97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%51% of 4244 at avg 52¢, ROI 0%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%
Entries under 30¢—11% (won 80% of 61)41% (won 8% of 1743)29% (won 11% of 465)
Entries 30–50¢—35% (won 98% of 203)13% (won 39% of 571)16% (won 40% of 255)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 100% of 201)8% (won 72% of 360)16% (won 62% of 260)
Entries 70¢ and up—20% (won 100% of 115)37% (won 96% of 1570)39% (won 94% of 637)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.