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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| bernardbulletin | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 70% (698–295, n=993) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $185K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #722 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (66 of 87 open) | 59% (16 of 27 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 81% (58 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −13 pts, n=15 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 61% of 1045 at avg 56¢, ROI +6% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 23% (won 15% of 241) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 18% (won 44% of 187) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 22% (won 68% of 228) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 37% (won 94% of 389) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | bernardbulletin | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $7.2K | — | — | Yes $36K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | — | No $34K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $433 | — | Commanders $161K |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $96 | — | — | No $118K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $4.3K | — | — | No $112K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.1K | — | — | Yes $81K |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $125 | — | Commanders $32K |