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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| bernardbulletin | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 71% (709–295, n=1004) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $184K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #722 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (67 of 89 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 52% (32 of 62 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −13 pts, n=15 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 61% of 1041 at avg 56¢, ROI +6% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 23% (won 15% of 238) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 18% (won 45% of 186) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 22% (won 68% of 228) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 37% (won 94% of 389) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | bernardbulletin | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $6.9K | — | Yes $37K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $96 | — | No $214K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $4.1K | — | No $102K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.0K | — | Yes $73K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $386 | — | No $6.4K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $699 | — | Yes $2.2K | — |