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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| forgotmydinner | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 31% (62–135, n=197) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $102K | $5.8M | $11.0M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #48 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (73 of 104 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | NBA ±0 pts, n=10 | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 20% of 173 at avg 14¢, ROI +19% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 85% (won 7% of 147) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 71% of 7) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 100% of 4) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 9% (won 100% of 15) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
11 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.