← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| notgoodluck | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 63% (211–125, n=336) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | -$44K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #685 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 78% (14 of 18 open) | 71% (15 of 21 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −7 pts, n=94 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 357 at avg 59¢, ROI −3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 14% of 56) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 36% of 72) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 62% of 103) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 92% of 126) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | notgoodluck | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.0K | — | — | No $35K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.7K | — | — | No $23K |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | — | Yes $4.1K |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $3.4K | — | — | No $590 |