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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| smellyEllie | BreakTheBank | RN1 | joseph00677 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 44% (569–722, n=1291) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13858–15341, n=29199) | 50% (10–10, n=20) |
| Consensus PnL | $101K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $5.3M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #976 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #2 |
| Sides with the consensus | 39% (22 of 56 open) | 91% (148 of 163 open) | 67% (2 of 3 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| not computed yet | ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=377 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 37% of 1252 at avg 35¢, ROI +4% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | — |
| Entries under 30¢ | 56% (won 7% of 704) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | — |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 39% of 123) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | — |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 69% of 127) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | — |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 94% of 298) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | — |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | smellyEllie | BreakTheBank | RN1 | joseph00677 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | No $202K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $380 | Yes $31K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $741 | No $28K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $9 | Yes $69K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $8 | Yes $28K | — | — |