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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| smellyEllie | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 44% (551–710, n=1261) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $102K | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #976 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 38% (18 of 48 open) | 72% (78 of 108 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics | |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=377 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 37% of 1256 at avg 35¢, ROI +4% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 56% (won 7% of 707) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 38% of 125) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 69% of 127) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 94% of 297) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | smellyEllie | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.8K | No $184K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $345 | Yes $37K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $701 | No $35K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $11 | Yes $82K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $15 | Yes $51K | — |