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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| stupid22 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 95% (306–15, n=321) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 48% (12778–13831, n=26609) |
| Consensus PnL | -$105K | $10.6M | $4.4M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #268 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 91% (29 of 32 open) | 70% (57 of 82 open) | no open consensus position | 61% (87 of 142 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −7 pts, n=87 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 96% of 373 at avg 95¢, ROI −1% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 75% of 4) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 97% (won 97% of 363) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | stupid22 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens vs. Bills opposite sides · consensus Bills | — | Bills $387K | — | Ravens $703 |
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Browns $300K | — | Steelers $91 |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Browns $259K | — | Steelers $3.4K |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $105K | — | Jets $255 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $32K | — | Cowboys $23 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $8.6K | — | Buccaneers $1.3K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $2.7K | — | Cowboys $611 |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $35K | — | Bills $37 |