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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| wagwanshawty | BreakTheBank | CORGII | surfandturf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 81% (13–3, n=16) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 62% (395–247, n=642) | 54% (225–189, n=414) |
| Consensus PnL | $77K | $10.6M | $4.5M | $9.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #269 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #68 | was PM monthly #326 |
| Sides with the consensus | 87% (27 of 31 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 14 at avg 83¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 20% (won 12% of 109) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 21% (won 46% of 114) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 100% of 1) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 33% (won 60% of 176) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 79% (won 100% of 11) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 26% (won 82% of 137) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | wagwanshawty | BreakTheBank | CORGII | surfandturf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $315 | No $857K | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $33K | No $202K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $12K | Yes $85K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $3.6K | Yes $31K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.4K | No $30K | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.1K | Yes $29K | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | Yes $274K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $14K | Yes $172K | — | — |