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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| wish- | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 82% (738–165, n=903) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $63K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 92% (36 of 39 open) | 54% (14 of 26 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 79% (57 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Economy −4 pts, n=51 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 84% of 1338 at avg 83¢, ROI +1% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 7% of 107) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 33% of 45) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 63% of 83) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 82% (won 96% of 1103) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | wish- | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.4K | — | — | No $202K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $8.5K | — | — | Yes $85K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.4K | — | — | No $34K |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Commanders | — | Eagles $1.2K | — | Commanders $32K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $3.6K | — | Commanders $161K |