Will Port FC vs. Beijing Guoan end in a draw?

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (84%) · No at 92¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 3

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 84%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$307.4

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 92.4¢

+28% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,354

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,566

Combined PnL-$740.27

No — 84%Yes — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 80.1¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$275.88	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
RN1	Noavg 54.1¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$727.8	53% 58869-51174 (110043)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 48.6¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$608.47	57% 1952-1448 (3400)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78¢	$976.14	$963.62	-$12.51	58% 44437-32355 (76792)
DI dips.	Noavg 77.8¢	$195.98	$234.36	+$38.38	46% 7593-8827 (16420)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 72.2¢	$96.39	$124.16	+$27.76	54% 22016-19110 (41126)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$64.45	$50.57	-$13.88	54% 6680-5614 (12294)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 77¢	$38.72	$40.54	+$1.82	50% 27131-27060 (54191)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$34.25	$38.46	+$4.21	39% 5297-8309 (13606)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$169.44	$32.72	-$130.39	45% 13592-16514 (30106)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$22.55	$23.36	+$0.81	48% 5267-5648 (10915)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$18.46	$16.29	-$2.17	51% 7310-7059 (14369)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Noavg 77¢	$16.28	$16.28	+$0.32	53% 5818-5225 (11043)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$10.47	$10	-$0.47	48% 6134-6542 (12676)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$9.32	$9.74	+$0.42	75% 1815-620 (2435)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 80¢	$8	$8.05	+$0.05	50% 25211-24910 (50121)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$4.15	+$0.45	47% 9051-10188 (19239)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 75¢	$4.06	$2.86	-$1.2	57% 11829-8912 (20741)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Yesavg 36.1¢	$1.81	$0.4	-$1.41	82% 6688-1443 (8131)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,956.24

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$275.88

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

RN1

Invested

$1,135.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$727.8

Record

53%

58869-51174 (110043)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,762.45

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$608.47

Record

57%

1952-1448 (3400)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$976.14

Value

$963.62

PnL

-$12.51

Record

58%

44437-32355 (76792)

dips.

Invested

$195.98

Value

$234.36

PnL

+$38.38

Record

46%

7593-8827 (16420)

cigarettes

Invested

$96.39

Value

$124.16

PnL

+$27.76

Record

54%

22016-19110 (41126)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$64.45

Value

$50.57

PnL

-$13.88

Record

54%

6680-5614 (12294)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$38.72

Value

$40.54

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

27131-27060 (54191)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$34.25

Value

$38.46

PnL

+$4.21

Record

39%

5297-8309 (13606)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$169.44

Value

$32.72

PnL

-$130.39

Record

45%

13592-16514 (30106)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$22.55

Value

$23.36

PnL

+$0.81

Record

48%

5267-5648 (10915)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$18.46

Value

$16.29

PnL

-$2.17

Record

51%

7310-7059 (14369)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

5818-5225 (11043)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$10.47

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.47

Record

48%

6134-6542 (12676)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$9.32

Value

$9.74

PnL

+$0.42

Record

75%

1815-620 (2435)

sentrio<$100

Invested

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

25211-24910 (50121)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

9051-10188 (19239)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$1.2

Record

57%

11829-8912 (20741)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$1.41

Record

82%

6688-1443 (8131)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.