Will CA River Plate win on 2026-11-01?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 1

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$39.2K

Combined PnL

-$411.88

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 98.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$38.7K

Total Shares39,269

Combined PnL-$95.35

Yes5 traders

Total Value$529.82

Total Shares4,803

Combined PnL-$316.53

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 97¢	$17.4K	$17.4K	+$19.57	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.2¢	$16.1K	$16.2K	+$67.83	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
RN1	Noavg 98.4¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$164.84	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 98.3¢	$454.99	$454.67	-$0.32	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 89.6¢	$257.91	$258.85	+$0.94	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 10.6¢	$570.74	$249.25	-$321.49	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$196.94	$242.25	+$45.31	57% 1818-1368 (3186)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$94.26	$94.44	+$0.18	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Noavg 90¢	$72	$59.2	-$12.8	50% 2582-2634 (5216)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 74¢	$51.06	$51.06	+$0	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$25	$26	+$1	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$23.7	$17.99	-$5.71	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$5.31	$7.66	+$2.36	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$7.4	-$0.2	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$48.36	$4.65	-$43.71	50% 7127-7172 (14299)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$17,407.37

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$19.57

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

SnakeBall

Invested

$16,095.62

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$67.83

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

RN1

Invested

$4,337.45

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$164.84

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$454.99

Value

$454.67

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$257.91

Value

$258.85

PnL

+$0.94

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$570.74

Value

$249.25

PnL

-$321.49

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$196.94

Value

$242.25

PnL

+$45.31

Record

57%

1818-1368 (3186)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$94.26

Value

$94.44

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Invested

$72

Value

$59.2

PnL

-$12.8

Record

50%

2582-2634 (5216)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$51.06

Value

$51.06

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$26

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

$17.99

PnL

-$5.71

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$2.36

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.36

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$43.71

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.