Brisbane 3: Alafia Ayeni vs Alex Bolt

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Bolt (61%) · Alex Bolt at 80¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 18

Alafia Ayeni21¢Alex Bolt79¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Bolt

Consensus Traders

Alex Bolt 61%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$131.74

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 79.5¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Bolt at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Bolt

11 of 18 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alafia Ayeni21%

Alex Bolt80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Bolt11 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,734

Combined PnL+$145.09

Alafia Ayeni7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,684

Combined PnL-$13.34

Alex Bolt — 61%Alafia Ayeni — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Alex Bolt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alafia Ayeni) and the top 1000 (10 on Alex Bolt) disagree here.

ctrAlafia Ayeni 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlafia Ayeni 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alex Bolt 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Alex Boltavg 77¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$84.25	61% 919-590 (1509)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Alex Boltavg 78.8¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$54.89	30% 358-845 (1203)
└ Alex Bolt leg	Alex Boltavg 78.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$10.45
└ Alafia Ayeni leg	Alafia Ayeniavg 23¢	$461.82	$411.65	-$65.34
LI Limousin	Alex Boltavg 77¢	$940.55	$971.09	+$30.54	30% 358-853 (1211)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 21¢	$432.22	$441.77	+$9.55	53% 1763-1567 (3330)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 21.8¢	$413.54	$264.86	-$10.08	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
└ Alafia Ayeni leg	Alafia Ayeniavg 21.8¢	$197.1	$185.33	-$11.78
└ Alex Bolt leg	Alex Boltavg 77.3¢	$77.32	$79.54	+$1.7
machinelearned	Alex Boltavg 76.7¢	$252.04	$253.38	+$1.34	39% 458-724 (1182)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 21.6¢	$263.7	$250.65	-$13.05	51% 1779-1735 (3514)
VE VenusianCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 22.9¢	$239.71	$214.84	-$24.87	30% 361-847 (1208)
0xheavy888	Alex Boltavg 74.6¢	$203.16	$212.51	+$9.35	56% 185-144 (329)
TH thestingsnake	Alex Boltavg 78¢	$284.51	$183.41	+$15.93	23% 108-368 (476)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 20.8¢	$164.3	$169.85	+$5.55	43% 109-144 (253)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Alex Boltavg 80¢	$100	$99.38	-$0.63	41% 3104-4461 (7565)
VeryLucky888CTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 20¢	$379.66	$92.34	+$11.35	52% 422-389 (811)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Alex Boltavg 77.8¢	$88.76	$90.14	+$1.38	56% 3835-3004 (6839)
└ Alex Bolt leg	Alex Boltavg 77.8¢	$64.99	$64.78	-$0.21
└ Alafia Ayeni leg	Alafia Ayeniavg 21.1¢	$23.77	$25.36	+$1.59
MA MadridTime<$100	Alex Boltavg 79¢	$81.73	$82.25	+$0.52	31% 363-824 (1187)
PA Pan9X<$100	Alex Boltavg 77¢	$38.5	$40.25	+$1.75	49% 629-666 (1295)
RN1<$100	Alex Boltavg 79¢	$38.41	$39.74	+$1.33	57% 3991-3004 (6995)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 21.8¢	$35.84	$33.72	-$2.12	22% 115-402 (517)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Alex Boltavg 78¢	$22.97	$23.71	+$0.74	50% 3271-3222 (6493)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 19¢	$9.5	$9.75	+$0.25	49% 90-95 (185)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alex Boltavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.83	-$0.02	30% 250-585 (835)

darkumbreon88

Alex Bolt

Invested

$1,853.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$84.25

Record

61%

919-590 (1509)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$1,815.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$54.89

Record

30%

358-845 (1203)

Both legs:

Alex Bolt$1,142.2678.8¢+$10.45

Alafia Ayeni$461.8223¢-$65.34

Limousin

Alex Bolt

Invested

$940.55

Value

$971.09

PnL

+$30.54

Record

30%

358-853 (1211)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$432.22

Value

$441.77

PnL

+$9.55

Record

53%

1763-1567 (3330)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$413.54

Value

$264.86

PnL

-$10.08

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Both legs:

Alafia Ayeni$197.121.8¢-$11.78

Alex Bolt$77.3277.3¢+$1.7

machinelearned

Alex Bolt

Invested

$252.04

Value

$253.38

PnL

+$1.34

Record

39%

458-724 (1182)

FlaznorpCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$263.7

Value

$250.65

PnL

-$13.05

Record

51%

1779-1735 (3514)

VenusianCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$239.71

Value

$214.84

PnL

-$24.87

Record

30%

361-847 (1208)

0xheavy888

Alex Bolt

Invested

$203.16

Value

$212.51

PnL

+$9.35

Record

56%

185-144 (329)

thestingsnake

Alex Bolt

Invested

$284.51

Value

$183.41

PnL

+$15.93

Record

23%

108-368 (476)

thirdt1meCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$164.3

Value

$169.85

PnL

+$5.55

Record

43%

109-144 (253)

xtxpleasecallme

Alex Bolt

Invested

$100

Value

$99.38

PnL

-$0.63

Record

41%

3104-4461 (7565)

VeryLucky888CTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$379.66

Value

$92.34

PnL

+$11.35

Record

52%

422-389 (811)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$88.76

Value

$90.14

PnL

+$1.38

Record

56%

3835-3004 (6839)

Both legs:

Alex Bolt$64.9977.8¢-$0.21

Alafia Ayeni$23.7721.1¢+$1.59

MadridTime<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$81.73

Value

$82.25

PnL

+$0.52

Record

31%

363-824 (1187)

Pan9X<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$38.5

Value

$40.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

49%

629-666 (1295)

RN1<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$38.41

Value

$39.74

PnL

+$1.33

Record

57%

3991-3004 (6995)

babybellsCTR<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$35.84

Value

$33.72

PnL

-$2.12

Record

22%

115-402 (517)

6512395314597884<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$22.97

Value

$23.71

PnL

+$0.74

Record

50%

3271-3222 (6493)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

90-95 (185)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

30%

250-585 (835)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Bolt at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Bolt

11 of 18 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Alex Bolt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alafia Ayeni) and the top 1000 (10 on Alex Bolt) disagree here.

ctrAlafia Ayeni 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlafia Ayeni 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alex Bolt 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Bolt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.