Monastir: Federico Bondioli vs Jonas Forejtek

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Jonas Forejtek (43%) · Jonas Forejtek at 82¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 16

Federico Bondioli19¢Jonas Forejtek81¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jonas Forejtek

Consensus Traders

Jonas Forejtek 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$190.77

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 81.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

9 of 21 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Federico Bondioli19%

Jonas Forejtek82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jonas Forejtek9 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares9,069

Combined PnL+$299.61

Federico Bondioli12 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares12,575

Combined PnL-$108.84

Jonas Forejtek — 43%Federico Bondioli — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Jonas Forejtek. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJonas Forejtek 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJonas Forejtek 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJonas Forejtek 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jonas Forejtek 50% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Jonas Forejtekavg 86.9¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$51.22	51% 3158-3057 (6215)
TH thirdt1me	Jonas Forejtekavg 78.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$249.37	35% 60-113 (173)
38 38791873984189	Jonas Forejtekavg 84.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$54.12	48% 767-833 (1600)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Federico Bondioliavg 19.2¢	$898.57	$748.4	-$150.18	25% 204-624 (828)
LI LightParadox	Jonas Forejtekavg 80.4¢	$674.8	$650.05	-$24.75	24% 202-637 (839)
VE VenusianCTR	Federico Bondioliavg 15.3¢	$580.22	$605.17	+$24.95	24% 205-642 (847)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jonas Forejtekavg 77.9¢	$297.26	$304.55	+$7.28	56% 3782-2946 (6728)
BA babybells	Jonas Forejtekavg 68.9¢	$291.32	$274.25	+$46.48	16% 68-358 (426)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Federico Bondioliavg 15.1¢	$230.68	$267.79	+$37.11	16% 62-332 (394)
LI LimousinCTR	Federico Bondioliavg 11.6¢	$137.48	$183	+$45.52	24% 201-647 (848)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 23.2¢	$198.6	$136.51	-$62.09	50% 1387-1404 (2791)
└ Federico Bondioli leg	Federico Bondioliavg 23.2¢	$154.8	$83.46	-$71.34
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 72.2¢	$43.8	$53.05	+$9.25
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 11.6¢	$75.28	$54.94	-$20.34	35% 171-317 (488)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 79.8¢	$39.88	$45.75	+$5.87	12% 60-456 (516)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 66¢	$32.31	$39.16	+$6.85	48% 409-445 (854)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 17¢	$61.46	$30.73	-$30.73	54% 1609-1354 (2963)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 16¢	$24	$30	+$6	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
VeryLucky888<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 65¢	$32.73	$28.29	+$5.6	48% 218-232 (450)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 29.4¢	$35.53	$10.26	-$25.27	20% 104-409 (513)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 16¢	$8	$10	+$2	64% 149-84 (233)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 17¢	$6.34	$7.45	+$1.12	52% 54-49 (103)
dips.CTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 16¢	$5.69	$7.11	+$1.42	42% 189-264 (453)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 36¢	$1	$0.56	-$0.44	5% 20-408 (428)

6512395314597884

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$2,669.15

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$51.22

Record

51%

3158-3057 (6215)

thirdt1me

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$2,393.24

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$249.37

Record

35%

60-113 (173)

38791873984189

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,796.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$54.12

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

MadridTimeCTR

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$898.57

Value

$748.4

PnL

-$150.18

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

LightParadox

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$674.8

Value

$650.05

PnL

-$24.75

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

VenusianCTR

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$580.22

Value

$605.17

PnL

+$24.95

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$297.26

Value

$304.55

PnL

+$7.28

Record

56%

3782-2946 (6728)

babybells

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$291.32

Value

$274.25

PnL

+$46.48

Record

16%

68-358 (426)

thestingsnakeCTR

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$230.68

Value

$267.79

PnL

+$37.11

Record

16%

62-332 (394)

LimousinCTR

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$137.48

Value

$183

PnL

+$45.52

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$198.6

Value

$136.51

PnL

-$62.09

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

Both legs:

Federico Bondioli$154.823.2¢-$71.34

Jonas Forejtek$43.872.2¢+$9.25

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$75.28

Value

$54.94

PnL

-$20.34

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$39.88

Value

$45.75

PnL

+$5.87

Record

12%

60-456 (516)

Pan9X<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$32.31

Value

$39.16

PnL

+$6.85

Record

48%

409-445 (854)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$61.46

Value

$30.73

PnL

-$30.73

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$24

Value

$30

PnL

+$6

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

VeryLucky888<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$32.73

Value

$28.29

PnL

+$5.6

Record

48%

218-232 (450)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$35.53

Value

$10.26

PnL

-$25.27

Record

20%

104-409 (513)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

Value

$10

PnL

+$2

Record

64%

149-84 (233)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$6.34

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$1.12

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

dips.CTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$5.69

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$1.42

Record

42%

189-264 (453)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.44

Record

20-408 (428)

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

9 of 21 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Jonas Forejtek. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJonas Forejtek 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJonas Forejtek 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJonas Forejtek 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jonas Forejtek 50% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jonas Forejtek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.