BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Leo Borg vs Toby Samuel

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Toby Samuel (42%) · Toby Samuel at 89¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Leo Borg11¢Toby Samuel89¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toby Samuel

Consensus Traders

Toby Samuel 42%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$67.42

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 89¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Leo Borg11%

Toby Samuel89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toby Samuel8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,235

Combined PnL-$49.62

Leo Borg11 traders

Total Value$955.41

Total Shares9,048

Combined PnL+$117.04

Toby Samuel — 42%Leo Borg — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Toby Samuel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedLeo Borg 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Leo Borg 56% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Toby Samuelavg 90¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$51.59	—
0xheavy888	Toby Samuelavg 89.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$7.01	—
FE ferrariChampions2026	Toby Samuelavg 90¢	$518.62	$464.17	-$7.78	—
LU LuckyLooCTR	Leo Borgavg 9¢	$297.19	$367.12	+$69.93	—
nigiri99CTR	Leo Borgavg 10.8¢	$145.61	$141.86	-$3.75	—
VeryLucky888CTR	Leo Borgavg 9.8¢	$312.18	$117.01	+$24.61	—
EU Eulhunter	Toby Samuelavg 88¢	$110.83	$100.42	+$2.34	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 10¢	$94.92	$99.66	+$4.75	—
SE sentrio<$100	Toby Samuelavg 89¢	$79.64	$71.28	-$0.4	—
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 9¢	$59.06	$68.9	+$9.84	—
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 9¢	$40.05	$46.73	+$6.68	—
EF efntrick<$100	Toby Samuelavg 88¢	$51	$46.57	+$0.98	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 10¢	$40	$42	+$2	—
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Toby Samuelavg 90¢	$36.99	$36.78	-$0.21	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 10.5¢	$46.07	$35.29	+$0.32	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 10¢	$21.55	$22.63	+$1.08	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 10¢	$8.23	$9.6	+$1.37	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 10¢	$44	$4.62	+$0.22	—
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Toby Samuelavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.48	+$0.03	—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3,439.46

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$51.59

Record

—

0xheavy888

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,782.96

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$7.01

Record

—

ferrariChampions2026

Toby Samuel

Invested

$518.62

Value

$464.17

PnL

-$7.78

Record

—

LuckyLooCTR

Leo Borg

Invested

$297.19

Value

$367.12

PnL

+$69.93

Record

—

nigiri99CTR

Leo Borg

Invested

$145.61

Value

$141.86

PnL

-$3.75

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR

Leo Borg

Invested

$312.18

Value

$117.01

PnL

+$24.61

Record

—

Eulhunter

Toby Samuel

Invested

$110.83

Value

$100.42

PnL

+$2.34

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$94.92

Value

$99.66

PnL

+$4.75

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$79.64

Value

$71.28

PnL

-$0.4

Record

—

hi774cCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$59.06

Value

$68.9

PnL

+$9.84

Record

—

dv-pmCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$40.05

Value

$46.73

PnL

+$6.68

Record

—

efntrick<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$51

Value

$46.57

PnL

+$0.98

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$40

Value

$42

PnL

+$2

Record

—

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$36.99

Value

$36.78

PnL

-$0.21

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$46.07

Value

$35.29

PnL

+$0.32

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$21.55

Value

$22.63

PnL

+$1.08

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$8.23

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$1.37

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$44

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.22

Record

—

ameisgoat11<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Toby Samuel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedLeo Borg 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Leo Borg 56% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toby Samuel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.