Bratislava 2: Laslo Djere vs Edas Butvilas

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Edas Butvilas (36%) · Edas Butvilas at 68¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 9

Laslo Djere33¢Edas Butvilas67¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Edas Butvilas

Consensus Traders

Edas Butvilas 36%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$402.21

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 67.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralEdas Butvilas at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Edas Butvilas

5 of 14 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Laslo Djere33%

Edas Butvilas68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Edas Butvilas5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,174

Combined PnL-$63.2

Laslo Djere9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,675

Combined PnL-$339.01

Edas Butvilas — 36%Laslo Djere — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 68¢	$5.1K	$3.7K	$-1.4K	53% 58932-51258 (110190)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 68¢	$3.2K	$1.8K	$-1.4K
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 61¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$14.9
MA MadridTime	Edas Butvilasavg 63.5¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$89.04	52% 812-758 (1570)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 68.7¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$82.98	44% 10207-13249 (23456)
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 68.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$83.02
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 28.5¢	$569.91	$569.86	-$0.05
LI LimousinARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 35.1¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$263.33	56% 921-721 (1642)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 35.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$61.17
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 81.8¢	$1.1K	$880.46	-$202.17
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 61¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$89.52	51% 4501-4377 (8878)
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 35¢	$799.55	$879.07	+$79.52
LI LightParadoxCTR	Laslo Djereavg 29.8¢	$872.35	$1.0K	+$166.86	53% 889-775 (1664)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 50.6¢	$594.81	$699.17	+$140.36	48% 14349-15848 (30197)
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 34.6¢	$275.98	$451.27	+$180.86
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 50.6¢	$288.19	$247.89	-$40.5
FL Flaznorp	Edas Butvilasavg 53.7¢	$319.08	$343.42	+$24.34	51% 23358-22138 (45496)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 61.1¢	$449.37	$303.94	-$145.43	53% 903-797 (1700)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 61.1¢	$279.29	$176.02	-$103.26
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 81.8¢	$170.08	$127.92	-$42.16
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Laslo Djereavg 65.7¢	$750.96	$249.05	-$501.91	52% 6703-6224 (12927)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 61¢	$54.79	$52.99	-$1.8	52% 14108-12884 (26992)
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 61¢	$30.5	$30.75	+$0.25
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 42¢	$24.29	$22.24	-$2.05
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 57.7¢	$80.84	$37.86	-$32.98	52% 698-634 (1332)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 62.5¢	$35.6	$33.06	-$2.54	57% 18969-14036 (33005)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 34¢	$27.88	$27.88	+$1.23	58% 30358-22188 (52546)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 63.3¢	$25.99	$16.45	+$0.45	58% 44437-32355 (76792)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 68¢	$6.8	$6.4	-$0.4	82% 6694-1445 (8139)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 65.6¢	$5.16	$5.03	-$0.09	52% 8430-7691 (16121)
FA Favorite-Cave-Muscat<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 56.2¢	$12.78	$3.02	+$0.09	68% 336-155 (491)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 33¢	$1.98	$2.16	+$0.18	47% 10539-11781 (22320)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Laslo Djereavg 65.2¢	$167.95	$1.68	+$31.6	60% 4211-2814 (7025)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 29¢	$0.58	$0.58	+$0	54% 6045-5051 (11096)

RN1ARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$5,058.43

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

58932-51258 (110190)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$3,240.8868¢$-1.4K

Edas Butvilas$1,817.5561¢+$14.9

MadridTime

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$2,895.59

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$89.04

Record

52%

812-758 (1570)

NotJumpARB<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$2,631.52

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$82.98

Record

44%

10207-13249 (23456)

Both legs:

Edas Butvilas$2,061.6268.7¢+$83.02

Laslo Djere$569.9128.5¢-$0.05

LimousinARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$2,407.08

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$263.33

Record

56%

921-721 (1642)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$1,324.4535.1¢-$61.17

Edas Butvilas$1,082.6381.8¢-$202.17

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$2,019.55

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$89.52

Record

51%

4501-4377 (8878)

Both legs:

Edas Butvilas$1,22061¢+$10

Laslo Djere$799.5535¢+$79.52

LightParadoxCTR

Laslo Djere

Invested

$872.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$166.86

Record

53%

889-775 (1664)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$594.81

Value

$699.17

PnL

+$140.36

Record

48%

14349-15848 (30197)

Both legs:

Edas Butvilas$275.9834.6¢+$180.86

Laslo Djere$288.1950.6¢-$40.5

Flaznorp

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$319.08

Value

$343.42

PnL

+$24.34

Record

51%

23358-22138 (45496)

VenusianARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$449.37

Value

$303.94

PnL

-$145.43

Record

53%

903-797 (1700)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$279.2961.1¢-$103.26

Edas Butvilas$170.0881.8¢-$42.16

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Laslo Djere

Invested

$750.96

Value

$249.05

PnL

-$501.91

Record

52%

6703-6224 (12927)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$54.79

Value

$52.99

PnL

-$1.8

Record

52%

14108-12884 (26992)

Both legs:

Edas Butvilas$30.561¢+$0.25

Laslo Djere$24.2942¢-$2.05

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$80.84

Value

$37.86

PnL

-$32.98

Record

52%

698-634 (1332)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$35.6

Value

$33.06

PnL

-$2.54

Record

57%

18969-14036 (33005)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$27.88

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$1.23

Record

58%

30358-22188 (52546)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$25.99

Value

$16.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

44437-32355 (76792)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

82%

6694-1445 (8139)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

Favorite-Cave-Muscat<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$12.78

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.09

Record

68%

336-155 (491)

topdogbigboi<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

10539-11781 (22320)

thestingsnakeCTR

Laslo Djere

Invested

$167.95

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$31.6

Record

60%

4211-2814 (7025)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.58

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6045-5051 (11096)

Research grade

NeutralEdas Butvilas at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Edas Butvilas

5 of 14 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Edas Butvilas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.