Orleans: Hugo Grenier vs Kyrian Jacquet

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Kyrian Jacquet (37%) · Kyrian Jacquet at 79¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 17

Hugo Grenier22¢Kyrian Jacquet78¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kyrian Jacquet

Consensus Traders

Kyrian Jacquet 37%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$251.54

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 78.5¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralKyrian Jacquet at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kyrian Jacquet

7 of 19 top traders (37%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hugo Grenier22%

Kyrian Jacquet79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kyrian Jacquet7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,753

Combined PnL-$283.8

Hugo Grenier12 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares9,254

Combined PnL+$32.26

Kyrian Jacquet — 37%Hugo Grenier — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Paul973973	Kyrian Jacquetavg 92¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$315.22	33% 31-64 (95)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hugo Grenieravg 15.7¢	$351.04	$502.75	+$151.7	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
VeryLucky888CTR	Hugo Grenieravg 19.6¢	$537.34	$435.98	+$1.42	50% 240-242 (482)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Hugo Grenieravg 14.6¢	$198.45	$305.73	+$107.28	25% 220-643 (863)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Kyrian Jacquetavg 86.5¢	$227.09	$228.22	+$1.13	56% 3802-2968 (6770)
RN1CTR	Hugo Grenieravg 18.1¢	$372.73	$198.46	-$174.28	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
machinelearned	Kyrian Jacquetavg 76.7¢	$126	$127.5	+$1.5	36% 354-629 (983)
LI Limousin<$100	Kyrian Jacquetavg 87.3¢	$83.87	$84.67	+$0.8	25% 219-662 (881)
TH thirdt1me	Kyrian Jacquetavg 79.3¢	$230.91	$74.55	+$27.65	39% 78-123 (201)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 19¢	$66.84	$68.38	+$1.55	55% 111-90 (201)
└ Hugo Grenier leg	Hugo Grenieravg 19¢	$38	$39	+$1
└ Kyrian Jacquet leg	Kyrian Jacquetavg 79¢	$28.84	$29.38	+$0.55
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 8¢	$46.14	$49.02	+$2.88	48% 898-974 (1872)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 21¢	$24.12	$25.84	+$1.72	25% 219-662 (881)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 19.2¢	$44.74	$24.46	-$20.29	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Kyrian Jacquetavg 88¢	$22	$21.88	-$0.13	15% 84-464 (548)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 19.9¢	$48.09	$20.57	-$27.52	25% 221-650 (871)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 14.8¢	$18.45	$10.62	-$7.83	18% 84-374 (458)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Kyrian Jacquetavg 77¢	$9.93	$10.39	+$0.46	37% 200-336 (536)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 20¢	$7.4	$7.22	-$0.19	49% 428-453 (881)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 16.8¢	$6.52	$4.06	-$2.46	18% 78-346 (424)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 9.3¢	$2.5	$2.3	-$0.2	49% 66-68 (134)

Paul973973

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$315.22

Record

33%

31-64 (95)

FlaznorpCTR

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$351.04

Value

$502.75

PnL

+$151.7

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$537.34

Value

$435.98

PnL

+$1.42

Record

50%

240-242 (482)

MadridTimeCTR

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$198.45

Value

$305.73

PnL

+$107.28

Record

25%

220-643 (863)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$227.09

Value

$228.22

PnL

+$1.13

Record

56%

3802-2968 (6770)

RN1CTR

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$372.73

Value

$198.46

PnL

-$174.28

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

machinelearned

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$126

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

36%

354-629 (983)

Limousin<$100

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$83.87

Value

$84.67

PnL

+$0.8

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

thirdt1me

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$230.91

Value

$74.55

PnL

+$27.65

Record

39%

78-123 (201)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$66.84

Value

$68.38

PnL

+$1.55

Record

55%

111-90 (201)

Both legs:

Hugo Grenier$3819¢+$1

Kyrian Jacquet$28.8479¢+$0.55

38791873984189CTR<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$46.14

Value

$49.02

PnL

+$2.88

Record

48%

898-974 (1872)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$24.12

Value

$25.84

PnL

+$1.72

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$44.74

Value

$24.46

PnL

-$20.29

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

BillBenter2026<$100

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$22

Value

$21.88

PnL

-$0.13

Record

15%

84-464 (548)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$48.09

Value

$20.57

PnL

-$27.52

Record

25%

221-650 (871)

babybellsCTR<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$18.45

Value

$10.62

PnL

-$7.83

Record

18%

84-374 (458)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$9.93

Value

$10.39

PnL

+$0.46

Record

37%

200-336 (536)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$0.19

Record

49%

428-453 (881)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$6.52

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$2.46

Record

18%

78-346 (424)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Research grade

NeutralKyrian Jacquet at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kyrian Jacquet

7 of 19 top traders (37%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kyrian Jacquet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.