Matsuyama: Shintaro Imai vs Fajing Sun

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Fajing Sun (92%) · Fajing Sun at 68¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 17

Shintaro Imai33¢Fajing Sun67¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fajing Sun

Consensus Traders

Fajing Sun 92%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.5K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 67.5¢

-3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralFajing Sun at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fajing Sun

12 of 13 top traders (92%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Shintaro Imai33%

Fajing Sun68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shintaro Imai1 trader

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares11,268

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Fajing Sun12 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares18,112

Combined PnL-$992.29

Shintaro Imai — 8%Fajing Sun — 92%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Shintaro Imaiavg 16.9¢	$1.9K	$4.6K	+$2.7K	11% 12-93 (105)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 41.5¢	$3.9K	$3.5K	-$466.66	51% 3145-3040 (6185)
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 41.5¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$374.95
└ Fajing Sun leg	Fajing Sunavg 69.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$91.71
VE Venusian	Fajing Sunavg 63.7¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$94.3	24% 190-616 (806)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Fajing Sunavg 76.5¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$365.77	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 31.6¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$221.64	23% 185-620 (805)
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 31.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$49.27
└ Fajing Sun leg	Fajing Sunavg 82.8¢	$1.1K	$899.19	-$172.37
MA MadridTime	Fajing Sunavg 57.3¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$258.57	24% 184-598 (782)
RN1	Fajing Sunavg 84¢	$2.8K	$2.0K	-$803.78	58% 3695-2661 (6356)
OM omnibus-076daa	Fajing Sunavg 57¢	$657.69	$755.77	+$98.08	34% 151-298 (449)
LI LightParadox	Fajing Sunavg 75.9¢	$726.45	$626.73	-$99.73	23% 182-609 (791)
FL Flaznorp	Fajing Sunavg 80.5¢	$592.13	$457.84	-$134.3	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Fajing Sunavg 64.7¢	$393.55	$402.86	+$9.31	56% 3771-2936 (6707)
└ Fajing Sun leg	Fajing Sunavg 64.7¢	$260.48	$259.65	-$0.84
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 33¢	$133.07	$143.22	+$10.14
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Fajing Sunavg 71.2¢	$593.65	$386.37	-$51.5	48% 644-687 (1331)
└ Fajing Sun leg	Fajing Sunavg 71.2¢	$333.69	$278.72	-$55.49
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 39¢	$103.66	$107.65	+$3.99
TH thestingsnake	Fajing Sunavg 64¢	$386.9	$357	-$28	14% 52-322 (374)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 41.1¢	$925.35	$257.4	-$112.55	31% 48-106 (154)
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 41.1¢	$191.59	$165.33	-$35.62
└ Fajing Sun leg	Fajing Sunavg 75¢	$107.13	$92.07	-$76.93
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Fajing Sunavg 75.2¢	$164.99	$155.79	-$9.2	52% 45-41 (86)
└ Fajing Sun leg	Fajing Sunavg 75.2¢	$146.18	$115.7	-$30.48
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 19¢	$18.81	$40.1	+$21.29
BA babybellsARB<$100	Fajing Sunavg 56.7¢	$109.34	$89.25	+$15.91	14% 57-349 (406)
└ Fajing Sun leg	Fajing Sunavg 56.7¢	$45.34	$48.39	+$5.05
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 29¢	$30	$40.86	+$10.86
VeryLucky888<$100	Fajing Sunavg 65.9¢	$47.22	$24.79	-$2.04	46% 178-207 (385)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Fajing Sunavg 77¢	$31.57	$24.4	-$7.18	10% 50-447 (497)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Fajing Sunavg 70¢	$14.15	$12.02	-$2.12	20% 68-273 (341)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Fajing Sunavg 66¢	$3.3	$2.97	-$0.33	20% 116-466 (582)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$1,908.22

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

11%

12-93 (105)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$3,927.5

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$466.66

Record

51%

3145-3040 (6185)

Both legs:

Shintaro Imai$2,580.2341.5¢-$374.95

Fajing Sun$1,347.2769.2¢-$91.71

Venusian

Fajing Sun

Invested

$3,340.49

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$94.3

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Fajing Sun

Invested

$2,641.26

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$365.77

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

LimousinARB<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$2,460.01

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$221.64

Record

23%

185-620 (805)

Both legs:

Shintaro Imai$1,388.4431.6¢-$49.27

Fajing Sun$1,071.5682.8¢-$172.37

MadridTime

Fajing Sun

Invested

$1,807.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$258.57

Record

24%

184-598 (782)

RN1

Fajing Sun

Invested

$2,759.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$803.78

Record

58%

3695-2661 (6356)

omnibus-076daa

Fajing Sun

Invested

$657.69

Value

$755.77

PnL

+$98.08

Record

34%

151-298 (449)

LightParadox

Fajing Sun

Invested

$726.45

Value

$626.73

PnL

-$99.73

Record

23%

182-609 (791)

Flaznorp

Fajing Sun

Invested

$592.13

Value

$457.84

PnL

-$134.3

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$393.55

Value

$402.86

PnL

+$9.31

Record

56%

3771-2936 (6707)

Both legs:

Fajing Sun$260.4864.7¢-$0.84

Shintaro Imai$133.0733¢+$10.14

38791873984189ARB<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$593.65

Value

$386.37

PnL

-$51.5

Record

48%

644-687 (1331)

Both legs:

Fajing Sun$333.6971.2¢-$55.49

Shintaro Imai$103.6639¢+$3.99

thestingsnake

Fajing Sun

Invested

$386.9

Value

$357

PnL

-$28

Record

14%

52-322 (374)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$925.35

Value

$257.4

PnL

-$112.55

Record

31%

48-106 (154)

Both legs:

Shintaro Imai$191.5941.1¢-$35.62

Fajing Sun$107.1375¢-$76.93

EulhunterARB<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$164.99

Value

$155.79

PnL

-$9.2

Record

52%

45-41 (86)

Both legs:

Fajing Sun$146.1875.2¢-$30.48

Shintaro Imai$18.8119¢+$21.29

babybellsARB<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$109.34

Value

$89.25

PnL

+$15.91

Record

14%

57-349 (406)

Both legs:

Fajing Sun$45.3456.7¢+$5.05

Shintaro Imai$3029¢+$10.86

VeryLucky888<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$47.22

Value

$24.79

PnL

-$2.04

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

BillBenter2026<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$31.57

Value

$24.4

PnL

-$7.18

Record

10%

50-447 (497)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$14.15

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$2.12

Record

20%

68-273 (341)

ameisgoat11<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$3.3

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.33

Record

20%

116-466 (582)

Research grade

NeutralFajing Sun at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fajing Sun

12 of 13 top traders (92%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fajing Sun wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.