Brisbane 3: Christian Langmo vs Ymerali Ibraimi

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Christian Langmo (58%) · Christian Langmo at 78¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 17

Christian Langmo78¢Ymerali Ibraimi22¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Christian Langmo

Consensus Traders

Christian Langmo 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$382.32

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralChristian Langmo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Christian Langmo

11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Christian Langmo78%

Ymerali Ibraimi23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Christian Langmo11 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares7,294

Combined PnL+$385.73

Ymerali Ibraimi8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares7,883

Combined PnL-$3.42

Christian Langmo — 58%Ymerali Ibraimi — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Christian Langmo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpChristian Langmo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChristian Langmo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedChristian Langmo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Christian Langmo 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1me	Christian Langmoavg 76.6¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$272.67	31% 48-106 (154)
RN1	Christian Langmoavg 73¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$11.59	58% 3695-2661 (6356)
38 38791873984189	Christian Langmoavg 78.3¢	$894.64	$907.2	+$36.66	48% 644-687 (1331)
VE VenusianCTR	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 21.5¢	$911.67	$870.44	-$41.23	24% 190-616 (806)
0xheavy888	Christian Langmoavg 85.6¢	$600.87	$659.57	+$58.7	56% 72-57 (129)
LI LimousinCTR	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 19.8¢	$400.6	$415.54	+$14.94	23% 185-620 (805)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 26.1¢	$421.1	$343.86	-$77.24	14% 52-322 (374)
└ Christian Langmo leg	Christian Langmoavg 83¢	$207.5	$208.75	+$1.25
└ Ymerali Ibraimi leg	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 26.1¢	$213.6	$135.11	-$78.49
BA babybells	Christian Langmoavg 78.2¢	$208.9	$200.98	+$4.68	14% 57-349 (406)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Christian Langmoavg 79.8¢	$149.85	$153.63	+$3.78	56% 3771-2936 (6707)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 14.8¢	$110.14	$152.86	+$42.72	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Christian Langmoavg 77.6¢	$112.14	$106.21	-$5.93	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 20¢	$53.8	$55.14	+$1.34	34% 151-298 (449)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 15¢	$37.5	$42.5	+$5	52% 5263-4776 (10039)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 33.5¢	$69.08	$42.23	-$26.85	24% 184-598 (782)
PA Pan9X<$100	Christian Langmoavg 85¢	$34.85	$38.54	+$3.69	48% 373-401 (774)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 17¢	$23.12	$23.8	+$0.68	52% 45-41 (86)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Christian Langmoavg 85¢	$8.5	$9.4	+$0.9	20% 116-466 (582)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Christian Langmoavg 89.5¢	$8.95	$8.75	-$0.2	10% 50-447 (497)
LI LightParadox<$100	Christian Langmoavg 88¢	$6.31	$5.51	-$0.8	23% 182-609 (791)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 27¢	$1	$0.98	-$0.02	4% 18-398 (416)

thirdt1me

Christian Langmo

Invested

$2,170.03

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$272.67

Record

31%

48-106 (154)

RN1

Christian Langmo

Invested

$1,692.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$11.59

Record

58%

3695-2661 (6356)

38791873984189

Christian Langmo

Invested

$894.64

Value

$907.2

PnL

+$36.66

Record

48%

644-687 (1331)

VenusianCTR

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$911.67

Value

$870.44

PnL

-$41.23

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

0xheavy888

Christian Langmo

Invested

$600.87

Value

$659.57

PnL

+$58.7

Record

56%

72-57 (129)

LimousinCTR

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$400.6

Value

$415.54

PnL

+$14.94

Record

23%

185-620 (805)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$421.1

Value

$343.86

PnL

-$77.24

Record

14%

52-322 (374)

Both legs:

Christian Langmo$207.583¢+$1.25

Ymerali Ibraimi$213.626.1¢-$78.49

babybells

Christian Langmo

Invested

$208.9

Value

$200.98

PnL

+$4.68

Record

14%

57-349 (406)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Christian Langmo

Invested

$149.85

Value

$153.63

PnL

+$3.78

Record

56%

3771-2936 (6707)

FlaznorpCTR

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$110.14

Value

$152.86

PnL

+$42.72

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Christian Langmo

Invested

$112.14

Value

$106.21

PnL

-$5.93

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$53.8

Value

$55.14

PnL

+$1.34

Record

34%

151-298 (449)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$37.5

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$69.08

Value

$42.23

PnL

-$26.85

Record

24%

184-598 (782)

Pan9X<$100

Christian Langmo

Invested

$34.85

Value

$38.54

PnL

+$3.69

Record

48%

373-401 (774)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$23.12

Value

$23.8

PnL

+$0.68

Record

52%

45-41 (86)

ameisgoat11<$100

Christian Langmo

Invested

$8.5

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.9

Record

20%

116-466 (582)

BillBenter2026<$100

Christian Langmo

Invested

$8.95

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$0.2

Record

10%

50-447 (497)

LightParadox<$100

Christian Langmo

Invested

$6.31

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$0.8

Record

23%

182-609 (791)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

18-398 (416)

Research grade

NeutralChristian Langmo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Christian Langmo

11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Christian Langmo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpChristian Langmo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChristian Langmo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedChristian Langmo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Christian Langmo 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Christian Langmo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.