Hersonissos 3: Jack Loge vs Odysseas Geladaris

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Jack Loge (63%) · Jack Loge at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 16

Jack Loge>99¢Odysseas Geladaris<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jack Loge

Consensus Traders

Jack Loge 63%

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$175.35

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralJack Loge at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jack Loge

12 of 19 top traders (63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jack Loge100%

Odysseas Geladaris0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jack Loge12 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares13,114

Combined PnL+$504.98

Odysseas Geladaris7 traders

Total Value$114.68

Total Shares7,931

Combined PnL-$329.63

Jack Loge — 63%Odysseas Geladaris — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Jack Logeavg 94.2¢	$5.9K	$6.2K	+$284.91	46% 2566-3072 (5638)
MA MadridTime	Jack Logeavg 93.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$24.16	45% 2577-3112 (5689)
38 38791873984189	Jack Logeavg 96.7¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$99.73	48% 71959-77656 (149615)
LI Limousin	Jack Logeavg 88.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$76.4	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
TH thestingsnake	Jack Logeavg 91.5¢	$1.1K	$857.77	+$80.45	60% 4652-3138 (7790)
VE Venusian	Jack Logeavg 91¢	$732.64	$798.95	+$66.31	45% 2644-3186 (5830)
EU Eulhunter	Jack Logeavg 87.6¢	$529.85	$587.15	+$57.31	53% 6834-5981 (12815)
tradecraft	Jack Logeavg 96.5¢	$193.05	$199.9	+$6.86	51% 6906-6563 (13469)
SU suitcase6628	Jack Logeavg 96.3¢	$178.15	$182.23	+$4.08	56% 206-161 (367)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Jack Logeavg 94.3¢	$131.99	$132.58	+$0.59	55% 3927-3277 (7204)
EF efntrick	Jack Logeavg 85¢	$113.51	$115.76	+$2.24	49% 3734-3958 (7692)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Odysseas Geladarisavg 11.8¢	$213.79	$87.78	-$116.41	57% 217-162 (379)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jack Logeavg 95.7¢	$47.85	$49.25	+$1.4	57% 20331-15125 (35456)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Odysseas Geladarisavg 4.7¢	$174.46	$20.55	-$153.91	46% 33752-39417 (73169)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Odysseas Geladarisavg 10.6¢	$6.99	$3.1	-$3.89	52% 6189-5710 (11899)
TRCMCTR<$100	Odysseas Geladarisavg 10.4¢	$1.57	$2.03	+$0.46	55% 4135-3331 (7466)
RN1CTR<$100	Odysseas Geladarisavg 1.1¢	$18.37	$0.83	-$17.53	53% 71843-63363 (135206)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Odysseas Geladarisavg 5¢	$35.46	$0.35	-$35.11	47% 2243-2554 (4797)
dips.CTR<$100	Odysseas Geladarisavg 4¢	$3.28	$0.04	-$3.24	48% 17738-19466 (37204)

LightParadox

Jack Loge

Invested

$5,907.87

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$284.91

Record

46%

2566-3072 (5638)

MadridTime

Jack Loge

Invested

$1,554.11

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$24.16

Record

45%

2577-3112 (5689)

38791873984189

Jack Loge

Invested

$1,682.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$99.73

Record

48%

71959-77656 (149615)

Limousin

Jack Loge

Invested

$1,011.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$76.4

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

thestingsnake

Jack Loge

Invested

$1,146.37

Value

$857.77

PnL

+$80.45

Record

60%

4652-3138 (7790)

Venusian

Jack Loge

Invested

$732.64

Value

$798.95

PnL

+$66.31

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

Eulhunter

Jack Loge

Invested

$529.85

Value

$587.15

PnL

+$57.31

Record

53%

6834-5981 (12815)

tradecraft

Jack Loge

Invested

$193.05

Value

$199.9

PnL

+$6.86

Record

51%

6906-6563 (13469)

suitcase6628

Jack Loge

Invested

$178.15

Value

$182.23

PnL

+$4.08

Record

56%

206-161 (367)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Jack Loge

Invested

$131.99

Value

$132.58

PnL

+$0.59

Record

55%

3927-3277 (7204)

efntrick

Jack Loge

Invested

$113.51

Value

$115.76

PnL

+$2.24

Record

49%

3734-3958 (7692)

thirdt1meCTR

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$213.79

Value

$87.78

PnL

-$116.41

Record

57%

217-162 (379)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jack Loge

Invested

$47.85

Value

$49.25

PnL

+$1.4

Record

57%

20331-15125 (35456)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$174.46

Value

$20.55

PnL

-$153.91

Record

46%

33752-39417 (73169)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$6.99

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$3.89

Record

52%

6189-5710 (11899)

TRCMCTR<$100

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$1.57

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.46

Record

55%

4135-3331 (7466)

RN1CTR<$100

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$18.37

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$17.53

Record

53%

71843-63363 (135206)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$35.46

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$35.11

Record

47%

2243-2554 (4797)

dips.CTR<$100

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$3.28

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.24

Record

48%

17738-19466 (37204)

Research grade

NeutralJack Loge at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Jack Loge

12 of 19 top traders (63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jack Loge wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.