Hersonissos 3: Nikita Mashtakov vs Adrian Andreev
18 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Adrian Andreev (95%) · Adrian Andreev at 86¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Adrian Andreev
19
Adrian Andreev 95%
$37.8K
$5.1K
69¢ → 85.5¢
+24% since entry · 18 traders
Research grade
NeutralAdrian Andreev at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
18 of 19 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Adrian Andreevavg 67.4¢ | $10.1K | $12.9K | +$2.7K | 46% 33752-39417 (73169) |
38 38791873984189 | Adrian Andreevavg 68.4¢ | $8.4K | $5.4K | +$1.1K | 48% 71959-77656 (149615) |
RO robustmstCTR | Nikita Mashtakovavg 32.2¢ | $5.7K | $4.8K | -$834.76 | 47% 124-141 (265) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Adrian Andreevavg 69.9¢ | $2.7K | $3.3K | +$530.62 | 47% 2243-2554 (4797) |
VE Venusian | Adrian Andreevavg 72.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$296.15 | 45% 2644-3186 (5830) |
TH thirdt1me | Adrian Andreevavg 67¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$457.6 | 57% 217-162 (379) |
FL Flaznorp | Adrian Andreevavg 71.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$186.85 | 52% 49211-46180 (95391) |
MA MadridTime | Adrian Andreevavg 70.1¢ | $929.79 | $1.1K | +$177.25 | 45% 2577-3112 (5689) |
SL SlickRick123 | Adrian Andreevavg 69¢ | $911.37 | $1.0K | +$92.46 | 47% 6369-7096 (13465) |
LI Limousin | Adrian Andreevavg 71.6¢ | $794.69 | $915.73 | +$121.04 | 46% 2665-3073 (5738) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0 | Adrian Andreevavg 69.5¢ | $469.35 | $563.63 | +$94.27 | 52% 6189-5710 (11899) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Adrian Andreevavg 72.2¢ | $560.09 | $535.1 | -$24.99 | 55% 3927-3277 (7204) |
LR lryyy | Adrian Andreevavg 69.7¢ | $352.44 | $417.45 | +$65.01 | 48% 40294-43254 (83548) |
TH thestingsnake | Adrian Andreevavg 75.5¢ | $362.4 | $400.8 | +$38.4 | 60% 4652-3138 (7790) |
LI LightParadox | Adrian Andreevavg 74.3¢ | $294.61 | $327.07 | +$32.46 | 46% 2566-3072 (5638) |
SH shiifoo | Adrian Andreevavg 68.4¢ | $189.99 | $211.25 | +$21.26 | 48% 5205-5734 (10939) |
EU Eulhunter | Adrian Andreevavg 70.4¢ | $115.7 | $135.65 | +$19.96 | 53% 6834-5981 (12815) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Adrian Andreevavg 75¢ | $45 | $45.6 | +$0.6 | 49% 3734-3958 (7692) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Adrian Andreevavg 74.6¢ | $37.3 | $41.75 | +$4.45 | 57% 20331-15125 (35456) |
Invested
$10,144.03
Value
$12.9K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
46%
33752-39417 (73169)
Invested
$8,415.33
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
48%
71959-77656 (149615)
Invested
$5,683.27
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$834.76
Record
47%
124-141 (265)
Invested
$2,731.87
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$530.62
Record
47%
2243-2554 (4797)
Invested
$1,991.36
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$296.15
Record
45%
2644-3186 (5830)
Invested
$1,882.65
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$457.6
Record
57%
217-162 (379)
Invested
$1,163.22
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$186.85
Record
52%
49211-46180 (95391)
Invested
$929.79
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$177.25
Record
45%
2577-3112 (5689)
Invested
$911.37
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$92.46
Record
47%
6369-7096 (13465)
Invested
$794.69
Value
$915.73
PnL
+$121.04
Record
46%
2665-3073 (5738)
Invested
$469.35
Value
$563.63
PnL
+$94.27
Record
52%
6189-5710 (11899)
Invested
$560.09
Value
$535.1
PnL
-$24.99
Record
55%
3927-3277 (7204)
Invested
$352.44
Value
$417.45
PnL
+$65.01
Record
48%
40294-43254 (83548)
Invested
$362.4
Value
$400.8
PnL
+$38.4
Record
60%
4652-3138 (7790)
Invested
$294.61
Value
$327.07
PnL
+$32.46
Record
46%
2566-3072 (5638)
Invested
$189.99
Value
$211.25
PnL
+$21.26
Record
48%
5205-5734 (10939)
Invested
$115.7
Value
$135.65
PnL
+$19.96
Record
53%
6834-5981 (12815)
Invested
$45
Value
$45.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
49%
3734-3958 (7692)
Invested
$37.3
Value
$41.75
PnL
+$4.45
Record
57%
20331-15125 (35456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ferrariChampions2026
Adrian Andreev — $12.9K
38791873984189
Adrian Andreev — $5.4K
robustmst
CTRNikita Mashtakov — $4.8K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Adrian Andreev — $3.3K
Venusian
Adrian Andreev — $2.3K
thirdt1me
Adrian Andreev — $2.1K
Flaznorp
Adrian Andreev — $1.4K
MadridTime
Adrian Andreev — $1.1K
SlickRick123
Adrian Andreev — $1.0K
Limousin
Adrian Andreev — $915.73