Knoxville: Daniel Milavsky vs Murphy Cassone
9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Milavsky (47%) · Daniel Milavsky at 93¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Daniel Milavsky
19
Daniel Milavsky 47%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
-$101.8
81.2¢ → 92.5¢
+14% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 19 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YE yesmate | Daniel Milavskyavg 81.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$277.15 | 52% 178-165 (343) |
VE Venusian | Daniel Milavskyavg 80.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$124.12 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
MA MadridTime | Daniel Milavskyavg 77.7¢ | $493.49 | $556.02 | +$62.53 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Murphy Cassoneavg 14.7¢ | $758.85 | $535.61 | -$4.3 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
LI LightParadox | Daniel Milavskyavg 79.7¢ | $449.17 | $493.2 | +$44.03 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
TH thirdt1meCTR | Murphy Cassoneavg 17.9¢ | $1.1K | $430.66 | -$596.15 | 37% 72-122 (194) |
TH thestingsnake | Daniel Milavskyavg 86.1¢ | $438.77 | $332.54 | +$16.77 | 18% 74-342 (416) |
LI Limousin | Daniel Milavskyavg 80¢ | $273.79 | $316.5 | +$42.71 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Murphy Cassoneavg 18¢ | $244.52 | $250.64 | +$6.12 | 54% 1629-1388 (3017) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG | Daniel Milavskyavg 82¢ | $119.99 | $135.35 | +$15.36 | 13% 59-379 (438) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Daniel Milavskyavg 80¢ | $89.99 | $98.37 | +$8.38 | 22% 123-426 (549) |
BA babybellsCTR<$100 | Murphy Cassoneavg 16.6¢ | $62.49 | $77.37 | +$14.87 | 18% 80-370 (450) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | Murphy Cassoneavg 13¢ | $65 | $72.5 | +$7.5 | 64% 155-88 (243) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Murphy Cassoneavg 21.9¢ | $195.51 | $67.02 | -$128.49 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Daniel Milavskyavg 75.9¢ | $61.53 | $66.08 | +$4.55 | 56% 3799-2963 (6762) |
| └ Daniel Milavsky leg | Daniel Milavskyavg 75.9¢ | $40.8 | $37.36 | -$3.44 | |
| └ Murphy Cassone leg | Murphy Cassoneavg 22¢ | $20.73 | $28.71 | +$7.99 | |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Daniel Milavskyavg 80.7¢ | $47.64 | $51.63 | +$3.99 | 14% 78-462 (540) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Murphy Cassoneavg 14¢ | $18.59 | $19.26 | +$0.66 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Murphy Cassoneavg 12¢ | $10.56 | $12.76 | +$2.2 | 50% 157-160 (317) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Murphy Cassoneavg 18¢ | $3.96 | $4.73 | +$0.77 | 36% 344-620 (964) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Murphy Cassoneavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.47 | -$0.03 | 52% 65-61 (126) |
Invested
$2,151.87
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$277.15
Record
52%
178-165 (343)
Invested
$1,397.76
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$124.12
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$493.49
Value
$556.02
PnL
+$62.53
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$758.85
Value
$535.61
PnL
-$4.3
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$449.17
Value
$493.2
PnL
+$44.03
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$1,064.81
Value
$430.66
PnL
-$596.15
Record
37%
72-122 (194)
Invested
$438.77
Value
$332.54
PnL
+$16.77
Record
18%
74-342 (416)
Invested
$273.79
Value
$316.5
PnL
+$42.71
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$244.52
Value
$250.64
PnL
+$6.12
Record
54%
1629-1388 (3017)
Invested
$119.99
Value
$135.35
PnL
+$15.36
Record
13%
59-379 (438)
Invested
$89.99
Value
$98.37
PnL
+$8.38
Record
22%
123-426 (549)
Invested
$62.49
Value
$77.37
PnL
+$14.87
Record
18%
80-370 (450)
Invested
$65
Value
$72.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
64%
155-88 (243)
Invested
$195.51
Value
$67.02
PnL
-$128.49
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$61.53
Value
$66.08
PnL
+$4.55
Record
56%
3799-2963 (6762)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.64
Value
$51.63
PnL
+$3.99
Record
14%
78-462 (540)
Invested
$18.59
Value
$19.26
PnL
+$0.66
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$12.76
PnL
+$2.2
Record
50%
157-160 (317)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$3.96
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.77
Record
36%
344-620 (964)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
65-61 (126)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
yesmate
Daniel Milavsky — $2.4K
Venusian
Daniel Milavsky — $1.4K
MadridTime
Daniel Milavsky — $556.02
38791873984189
CTRMurphy Cassone — $535.61
LightParadox
Daniel Milavsky — $493.2
thirdt1me
CTRMurphy Cassone — $430.66
thestingsnake
Daniel Milavsky — $332.54
Limousin
Daniel Milavsky — $316.5
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRMurphy Cassone — $250.64
ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG
Daniel Milavsky — $135.35