BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Inaki Montes vs Lorenzo Sonego

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Sonego (53%) · Lorenzo Sonego at 79¢ · $69K held · ends Nov 15

Inaki Montes22¢Lorenzo Sonego78¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Sonego

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Sonego 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$68.5K

Combined PnL

$5.6K

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 78.5¢

+23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Inaki Montes22%

Lorenzo Sonego79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Sonego10 traders

Total Value$63.8K

Total Shares78,031

Combined PnL+$5.7K

Inaki Montes9 traders

Total Value$632.7

Total Shares2,432

Combined PnL-$27.71

Lorenzo Sonego — 53%Inaki Montes — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 64.4¢	$20.3K	$20.9K	+$575.28	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
OM omnibus-076daa	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 54.9¢	$11.8K	$16.3K	+$4.4K	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
RN1	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 65.1¢	$13.9K	$14.5K	+$530.91	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
VE Venusian	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 74.7¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$91.89	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 65.2¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$181.12	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 65.2¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$190.19
└ Inaki Montes leg	Inaki Montesavg 41.9¢	$948.74	$577.43	-$371.31
K5 k56	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 75.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$48.45	58% 902-666 (1568)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 65.6¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	+$129.34	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 65.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$212.12
└ Inaki Montes leg	Inaki Montesavg 29.4¢	$545.4	$454.94	-$82.77
FL Flaznorp	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 71.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$56.94	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Inaki Montesavg 25¢	$196.82	$208.63	+$11.81	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
CI cigarettes	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 63¢	$157.5	$183.75	+$26.25	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Inaki Montesavg 27¢	$176.37	$163.3	-$13.06	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
tradecraftCTR	Inaki Montesavg 34.9¢	$124.33	$97.85	-$26.48	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 72¢	$85.35	$87.13	+$1.78	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 25¢	$65.99	$67.31	+$1.32	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 73¢	$61.59	$61.86	+$0.27	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 73¢	$36.5	$37.25	+$0.75
└ Inaki Montes leg	Inaki Montesavg 26¢	$25.09	$24.61	-$0.48
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 25¢	$58.07	$59.23	+$1.16	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 73.1¢	$72.84	$31.39	+$0.8	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 26¢	$28.38	$28.93	+$0.55	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
MA MadridTime<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 76.9¢	$20.43	$20.06	-$0.38	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 42¢	$6.3	$3.68	-$2.63	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
TRCMCTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 28¢	$2.8	$2.45	-$0.35	55% 4093-3300 (7393)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.32	-$0.02	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

ferrariChampions2026

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$20,325.91

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$575.28

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

omnibus-076daa

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$11,818.25

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

RN1

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$13,936.5

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$530.91

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Venusian

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$8,568.78

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$91.89

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2,285.27

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$181.12

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Sonego$1,336.5265.2¢+$190.19

Inaki Montes$948.7441.9¢-$371.31

k56

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2,025.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$48.45

Record

58%

902-666 (1568)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2,552.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$129.34

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Sonego$1,231.3365.6¢+$212.12

Inaki Montes$545.429.4¢-$82.77

Flaznorp

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$1,203.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$56.94

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Inaki Montes

Invested

$196.82

Value

$208.63

PnL

+$11.81

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

cigarettes

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$157.5

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$26.25

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Inaki Montes

Invested

$176.37

Value

$163.3

PnL

-$13.06

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

tradecraftCTR

Inaki Montes

Invested

$124.33

Value

$97.85

PnL

-$26.48

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

darkumbreon88<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$85.35

Value

$87.13

PnL

+$1.78

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

GC-PCTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$65.99

Value

$67.31

PnL

+$1.32

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

EulhunterARB<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$61.59

Value

$61.86

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Sonego$36.573¢+$0.75

Inaki Montes$25.0926¢-$0.48

NM-PCTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$58.07

Value

$59.23

PnL

+$1.16

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Pan9X<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$72.84

Value

$31.39

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

sentrioCTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$28.38

Value

$28.93

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

MadridTime<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$20.43

Value

$20.06

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$2.63

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

TRCMCTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

4093-3300 (7393)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Sonego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.