Hersonissos 3: Andrej Nedic vs Michele Ribecai

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Michele Ribecai (59%) · Michele Ribecai at 81¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Andrej Nedic20¢Michele Ribecai80¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michele Ribecai

Consensus Traders

Michele Ribecai 59%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$440.33

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 80.5¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichele Ribecai at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michele Ribecai

10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Andrej Nedic20%

Michele Ribecai81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michele Ribecai10 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares7,582

Combined PnL+$424.08

Andrej Nedic7 traders

Total Value$185.89

Total Shares715

Combined PnL+$16.26

Michele Ribecai — 59%Andrej Nedic — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Michele Ribecai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMichele Ribecai 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichele Ribecai 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichele Ribecai 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michele Ribecai 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Michele Ribecaiavg 69.1¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$624.86	16% 105-569 (674)
FL Flaznorp	Michele Ribecaiavg 81.2¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$245.33	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
VE Venusian	Michele Ribecaiavg 82.4¢	$1.1K	$959.92	-$170.62	25% 212-653 (865)
TH thirdt1me	Michele Ribecaiavg 80¢	$802.3	$821.82	+$57.14	37% 68-118 (186)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 85¢	$351.91	$345.56	-$6.35	54% 1624-1378 (3002)
└ Michele Ribecai leg	Michele Ribecaiavg 85¢	$233.83	$224.2	-$9.63
└ Andrej Nedic leg	Andrej Nedicavg 18¢	$118.08	$121.36	+$3.28
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 83¢	$254.13	$246.08	-$8.04	56% 3797-2956 (6753)
└ Michele Ribecai leg	Michele Ribecaiavg 83¢	$209.2	$187.85	-$21.35
└ Andrej Nedic leg	Andrej Nedicavg 19.7¢	$44.93	$58.24	+$13.31
38 38791873984189	Michele Ribecaiavg 74¢	$190.92	$225.75	+$34.83	48% 840-912 (1752)
BA babybells	Michele Ribecaiavg 79.8¢	$183.55	$196.65	+$13.1	17% 77-365 (442)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Andrej Nedicavg 25.6¢	$115.09	$84.82	-$27.27	17% 71-337 (408)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Andrej Nedicavg 14.2¢	$25.76	$69.72	+$43.96	25% 212-653 (865)
VeryLucky888<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 65¢	$59.88	$41.86	+$9.46	49% 231-238 (469)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 84.3¢	$21.92	$21.71	-$0.21	13% 71-461 (532)
SC SchruteBucks	Michele Ribecaiavg 69¢	$1.0K	$20.36	+$100.35	20% 117-480 (597)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Andrej Nedicavg 47¢	$18.8	$19	+$0.2	35% 326-609 (935)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Andrej Nedicavg 16.2¢	$5.22	$4.66	-$0.55	52% 61-57 (118)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Andrej Nedicavg 45¢	$3.36	$3.32	-$0.04	25% 213-642 (855)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Andrej Nedicavg 17¢	$2.47	$2.4	-$0.07	25% 214-632 (846)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 64¢	$1.78	$2.28	+$0.5	24% 155-504 (659)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Andrej Nedicavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.98	+$0.03	31% 169-382 (551)

tradecraft

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$2,117.08

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$624.86

Record

16%

105-569 (674)

Flaznorp

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$1,566.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$245.33

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

Venusian

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$1,130.54

Value

$959.92

PnL

-$170.62

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

thirdt1me

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$802.3

Value

$821.82

PnL

+$57.14

Record

37%

68-118 (186)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$351.91

Value

$345.56

PnL

-$6.35

Record

54%

1624-1378 (3002)

Both legs:

Michele Ribecai$233.8385¢-$9.63

Andrej Nedic$118.0818¢+$3.28

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$254.13

Value

$246.08

PnL

-$8.04

Record

56%

3797-2956 (6753)

Both legs:

Michele Ribecai$209.283¢-$21.35

Andrej Nedic$44.9319.7¢+$13.31

38791873984189

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$190.92

Value

$225.75

PnL

+$34.83

Record

48%

840-912 (1752)

babybells

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$183.55

Value

$196.65

PnL

+$13.1

Record

17%

77-365 (442)

thestingsnakeCTR

Andrej Nedic

Invested

$115.09

Value

$84.82

PnL

-$27.27

Record

17%

71-337 (408)

LimousinCTR<$100

Andrej Nedic

Invested

$25.76

Value

$69.72

PnL

+$43.96

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

VeryLucky888<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$59.88

Value

$41.86

PnL

+$9.46

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

BillBenter2026<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$21.92

Value

$21.71

PnL

-$0.21

Record

13%

71-461 (532)

SchruteBucks

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$1,011.8

Value

$20.36

PnL

+$100.35

Record

20%

117-480 (597)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Andrej Nedic

Invested

$18.8

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.2

Record

35%

326-609 (935)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Andrej Nedic

Invested

$5.22

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.55

Record

52%

61-57 (118)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Andrej Nedic

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Andrej Nedic

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.07

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

ameisgoat11<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.5

Record

24%

155-504 (659)

sentrioCTR<$100

Andrej Nedic

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

Research grade

NeutralMichele Ribecai at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Michele Ribecai

10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Michele Ribecai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMichele Ribecai 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichele Ribecai 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichele Ribecai 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michele Ribecai 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michele Ribecai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.