Taipei: Kasidit Samrej vs Omar Jasika

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Omar Jasika (57%) · Omar Jasika at 83¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 9

Kasidit Samrej18¢Omar Jasika82¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Omar Jasika

Consensus Traders

Omar Jasika 57%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

-$113.86

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 82.5¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOmar Jasika at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Omar Jasika

8 of 14 top traders (57%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kasidit Samrej18%

Omar Jasika83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Omar Jasika8 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,988

Combined PnL+$240.39

Kasidit Samrej6 traders

Total Value$449.72

Total Shares1,874

Combined PnL-$354.24

Omar Jasika — 57%Kasidit Samrej — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Omar Jasika. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOmar Jasika 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOmar Jasika 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOmar Jasika 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Omar Jasika 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 67.2¢	$3.9K	$5.3K	+$1.4K	58% 48438-34625 (83063)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 67.2¢	$3.7K	$4.2K	+$513.09
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 28.8¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$906.35
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 72.1¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$459.01	52% 5693-5262 (10955)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 72.1¢	$3.7K	$3.3K	-$385.89
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 37.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$73.12
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 71¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$131.59	42% 7703-10425 (18128)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 71¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$139.48
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 33.2¢	$925.43	$654.36	-$271.07
TH thestingsnake	Omar Jasikaavg 77¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$232.77	60% 4142-2782 (6924)
JU Justluck9	Omar Jasikaavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$459.99	41% 96-139 (235)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 53.4¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	+$77.64	58% 43549-31676 (75225)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 53.4¢	$548.71	$811.93	+$285.63
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 45¢	$468.21	$260.2	-$207.98
FL Flaznorp	Omar Jasikaavg 78¢	$797.54	$806.91	+$9.38	51% 17568-16579 (34147)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 77¢	$4.5K	$756.32	-$28.83	47% 12911-14497 (27408)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 77¢	$576.99	$483.59	-$41.03
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 33.9¢	$260.52	$272.72	+$12.21
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 23¢	$739.37	$612.83	-$2.07	48% 1149-1258 (2407)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 23¢	$411.64	$349.15	-$62.67
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 62¢	$203.05	$263.68	+$60.6
12xmrboltARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 31.5¢	$402	$408.83	+$6.83	44% 247-312 (559)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 31.5¢	$303	$269.07	-$33.93
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 51¢	$99	$139.76	+$40.76
OM omnibus-076daa	Omar Jasikaavg 53.7¢	$326.92	$332.1	+$5.18	50% 19800-20146 (39946)
nigiri99CTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 47¢	$630.27	$261.5	-$368.77	46% 7238-8504 (15742)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 66.6¢	$235.14	$225.48	-$9.66	54% 5889-4938 (10827)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 40.4¢	$107.2	$120.85	+$13.64
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 66.6¢	$127.94	$104.63	-$23.3
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 77.6¢	$184.63	$172.94	-$11.7	52% 14017-12784 (26801)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 77.6¢	$131.64	$104.37	-$27.27
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 29.8¢	$52.99	$68.56	+$15.57
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 20¢	$49.97	$62.53	+$1.3	59% 30944-21673 (52617)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 37.9¢	$48.24	$57.85	+$9.61	47% 9989-11124 (21113)
poshposhCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 41¢	$37.32	$41.42	+$4.1	58% 11302-8251 (19553)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 54¢	$29.17	$40.79	-$0.05	53% 7986-7139 (15125)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 65.5¢	$33.97	$35.42	+$1.45	85% 6300-1075 (7375)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 41¢	$20.5	$22.75	+$2.25	55% 18116-14586 (32702)
HRTrading<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 76.1¢	$15.05	$12.79	-$2.26	53% 6352-5741 (12093)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 79.5¢	$9.35	$8.83	-$0.52	51% 990-953 (1943)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 45¢	$6.62	$3.68	-$2.72	61% 13834-8740 (22574)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$3,889.2

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

48438-34625 (83063)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$3,712.9867.2¢+$513.09

Kasidit Samrej$1,327.9328.8¢+$906.35

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$4,857.96

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$459.01

Record

52%

5693-5262 (10955)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$3,671.4472.1¢-$385.89

Kasidit Samrej$1,186.5237.8¢-$73.12

NotJumpARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$2,717.6

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$131.59

Record

42%

7703-10425 (18128)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$1,792.1771¢+$139.48

Kasidit Samrej$925.4333.2¢-$271.07

thestingsnake

Omar Jasika

Invested

$2,585.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$232.77

Record

60%

4142-2782 (6924)

Justluck9

Omar Jasika

Invested

$1,119.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$459.99

Record

41%

96-139 (235)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$1,841.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$77.64

Record

58%

43549-31676 (75225)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$548.7153.4¢+$285.63

Kasidit Samrej$468.2145¢-$207.98

Flaznorp

Omar Jasika

Invested

$797.54

Value

$806.91

PnL

+$9.38

Record

51%

17568-16579 (34147)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$4,471.06

Value

$756.32

PnL

-$28.83

Record

47%

12911-14497 (27408)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$576.9977¢-$41.03

Kasidit Samrej$260.5233.9¢+$12.21

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$739.37

Value

$612.83

PnL

-$2.07

Record

48%

1149-1258 (2407)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$411.6423¢-$62.67

Omar Jasika$203.0562¢+$60.6

12xmrboltARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$402

Value

$408.83

PnL

+$6.83

Record

44%

247-312 (559)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$30331.5¢-$33.93

Omar Jasika$9951¢+$40.76

omnibus-076daa

Omar Jasika

Invested

$326.92

Value

$332.1

PnL

+$5.18

Record

50%

19800-20146 (39946)

nigiri99CTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$630.27

Value

$261.5

PnL

-$368.77

Record

46%

7238-8504 (15742)

EulhunterARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$235.14

Value

$225.48

PnL

-$9.66

Record

54%

5889-4938 (10827)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$107.240.4¢+$13.64

Omar Jasika$127.9466.6¢-$23.3

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$184.63

Value

$172.94

PnL

-$11.7

Record

52%

14017-12784 (26801)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$131.6477.6¢-$27.27

Kasidit Samrej$52.9929.8¢+$15.57

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$49.97

Value

$62.53

PnL

+$1.3

Record

59%

30944-21673 (52617)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$48.24

Value

$57.85

PnL

+$9.61

Record

47%

9989-11124 (21113)

poshposhCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$37.32

Value

$41.42

PnL

+$4.1

Record

58%

11302-8251 (19553)

iWasEnough<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$29.17

Value

$40.79

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

7986-7139 (15125)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$33.97

Value

$35.42

PnL

+$1.45

Record

85%

6300-1075 (7375)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$20.5

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

55%

18116-14586 (32702)

HRTrading<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$15.05

Value

$12.79

PnL

-$2.26

Record

53%

6352-5741 (12093)

ferdinand2<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$9.35

Value

$8.83

PnL

-$0.52

Record

51%

990-953 (1943)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$6.62

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$2.72

Record

61%

13834-8740 (22574)

Research grade

NeutralOmar Jasika at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Omar Jasika

8 of 14 top traders (57%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Omar Jasika. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOmar Jasika 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOmar Jasika 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOmar Jasika 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Omar Jasika 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Omar Jasika wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.