Will CR Brasil win on 2026-11-07?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (65%) · Yes at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 65%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$535.1

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 99.5¢

+16% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,347

Combined PnL-$66.92

No6 traders

Total Value$84.85

Total Shares1,962

Combined PnL-$468.18

Yes — 65%No — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 84.2¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$199.74	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 96.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$31.61	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 86.3¢	$226.22	$245.62	+$18.03	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
ocr7	Yesavg 72.3¢	$174.98	$233.85	+$58.87	55% 1405-1155 (2560)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 58.9¢	$135.37	$228.68	+$93.31	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 65¢	$73.89	$109.72	+$35.83	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 90¢	$156.58	$109.35	-$47.24	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$91	$99.45	+$8.45	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 91.3¢	$73.08	$78.28	+$5.2	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$73.03	$63.46	-$9.13	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 27.2¢	$171.65	$30.28	-$147.54	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 26.8¢	$145.26	$21.92	-$123.34	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 26.9¢	$112.87	$14.29	-$98.58	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 27.3¢	$106.23	$13.81	-$92.41	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yesavg 88.5¢	$8.85	$9.95	+$1.09	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$9.44	$4.32	-$5.52	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 3.4¢	$3.4	$0.23	-$0.78	47% 11040-12658 (23698)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,933.68

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$199.74

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,453.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$31.61

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$226.22

Value

$245.62

PnL

+$18.03

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

ocr7

Yes

Invested

$174.98

Value

$233.85

PnL

+$58.87

Record

55%

1405-1155 (2560)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$135.37

Value

$228.68

PnL

+$93.31

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$73.89

Value

$109.72

PnL

+$35.83

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$156.58

Value

$109.35

PnL

-$47.24

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$91

Value

$99.45

PnL

+$8.45

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.08

Value

$78.28

PnL

+$5.2

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

Oddstorm<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.03

Value

$63.46

PnL

-$9.13

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$171.65

Value

$30.28

PnL

-$147.54

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$145.26

Value

$21.92

PnL

-$123.34

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$112.87

Value

$14.29

PnL

-$98.58

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$106.23

Value

$13.81

PnL

-$92.41

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.85

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$1.09

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.44

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$5.52

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.78

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.