Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 100¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

-$625.3

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 99.7¢

+18% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares21,126

Combined PnL-$252.65

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares12,261

Combined PnL-$372.66

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 79¢	$5.4K	$4.3K	+$26.77	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
AN Anon455	Noavg 74.3¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$569.8	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 98.8¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$25.76	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 81¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$515.06	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95.8¢	$4.0K	$2.4K	$-1.5K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$39.55	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 80.2¢	$978.24	$928.86	+$211.53	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PT PT-S7	Noavg 85.4¢	$425.23	$496.17	+$70.94	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 83.2¢	$693.35	$484.19	+$120.5	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 98.7¢	$429.45	$389.45	-$40	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 100¢	$311.73	$263.43	-$48.3	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$236	$237.7	+$1.7	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$185.28	$186.45	+$0.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$50	$51.25	+$1.25
LI Limousin	Noavg 88¢	$356.49	$212.43	-$144.06	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
NM NM-P	Noavg 79¢	$113.76	$114.19	+$0.43	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$187.22	$105.49	-$81.73	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 100¢	$59.02	$55.57	-$3.45	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
dips.<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.19	$10.57	+$0.39	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 95¢	$6.9	$7.23	+$0.34	45% 31889-38995 (70884)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$250.74	$5.87	-$244.87	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.98	+$0.58	56% 681-529 (1210)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.45	$4.93	+$1.47	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$6.73	$0.21	-$6.51	50% 48537-48152 (96689)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$5,353.47

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$26.77

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

Anon455

Invested

$3,198.56

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$569.8

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

LightParadox

Invested

$3,093.07

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$25.76

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,459.25

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$515.06

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,950.44

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,661.3

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$39.55

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

38791873984189

Invested

$978.24

Value

$928.86

PnL

+$211.53

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

PT-S7

Invested

$425.23

Value

$496.17

PnL

+$70.94

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

Pan9X

Invested

$693.35

Value

$484.19

PnL

+$120.5

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

MadridTime

Invested

$429.45

Value

$389.45

PnL

-$40

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$311.73

Value

$263.43

PnL

-$48.3

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$236

Value

$237.7

PnL

+$1.7

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

No$185.2879¢+$0.45

Yes$5020¢+$1.25

Limousin

Invested

$356.49

Value

$212.43

PnL

-$144.06

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

NM-P

Invested

$113.76

Value

$114.19

PnL

+$0.43

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$187.22

Value

$105.49

PnL

-$81.73

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$59.02

Value

$55.57

PnL

-$3.45

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

dips.<$100

Invested

$10.19

Value

$10.57

PnL

+$0.39

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.23

PnL

+$0.34

Record

45%

31889-38995 (70884)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$250.74

Value

$5.87

PnL

-$244.87

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.58

Record

56%

681-529 (1210)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$1.47

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.73

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$6.51

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.