Portland Pilots vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (47%) · Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at 68¢ · $45K held · ended Nov 10

Portland Pilots33¢Hawaii Rainbow Warriors67¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Consensus Traders

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.2K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 67.5¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawaii Rainbow Warriors at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Portland Pilots33%

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Portland Pilots9 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares43,029

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors8 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares33,496

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Portland Pilots — 53%Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Portland Pilotsavg 27.3¢	$12.4K	$16.5K	+$4.1K	51% 105-102 (207)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 72.2¢	$17.8K	$16.2K	$-1.6K	57% 3041-2285 (5326)
FL Flaznorp	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 73.4¢	$5.2K	$4.2K	-$944.02	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
FY fydiCTR	Portland Pilotsavg 27.2¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$639.95	— 1-1 (2)
SN SnakeBall	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 73.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$87.82	48% 134-148 (282)
0xheavy888	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 74.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$53.05	56% 72-57 (129)
RN1ARB<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 76.2¢	$1.0K	$881.67	-$145.4	58% 3695-2661 (6356)
└ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors leg	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 76.2¢	$784.33	$627.57	-$156.76
└ Portland Pilots leg	Portland Pilotsavg 37.3¢	$242.74	$254.1	+$11.36
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 66.5¢	$643.1	$652.33	+$9.23	56% 450-359 (809)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 63¢	$376.62	$486.13	+$112.1	48% 24-26 (50)
└ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors leg	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 63¢	$243.81	$261.23	+$17.42
└ Portland Pilots leg	Portland Pilotsavg 19¢	$131.48	$224.9	+$94.68
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 76¢	$1.3K	$344.19	-$93.41	48% 644-687 (1331)
└ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors leg	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 76¢	$283.69	$227.7	-$118.99
└ Portland Pilots leg	Portland Pilotsavg 30.4¢	$90.91	$116.49	+$25.58
MA MadridTimeCTR	Portland Pilotsavg 20.8¢	$161.85	$253.28	+$91.43	24% 184-598 (782)
BO BoomLaLa	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 71.5¢	$267.28	$163.54	-$40.29	12% 22-167 (189)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Portland Pilotsavg 33¢	$151.67	$149.59	-$2.08	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
VE VenusianCTR	Portland Pilotsavg 21.4¢	$67.22	$101.87	+$34.65	24% 190-616 (806)
VeryLucky888CTR	Portland Pilotsavg 25¢	$266	$80	+$36	46% 178-207 (385)
PA Pan9X	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 78¢	$240.78	$66.97	-$30.23	48% 373-401 (774)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 43¢	$54.85	$38.77	-$6.82	33% 65-135 (200)
CI cigarettes<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 60¢	$30	$30	+$0	52% 5263-4776 (10039)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 23¢	$9.2	$16	+$6.8	23% 185-620 (805)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 23¢	$1.15	$2	+$0.85	20% 116-466 (582)

nigiri99CTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$12,401.11

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

51%

105-102 (207)

HomeRunHazard

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$17,771.13

Value

$16.2K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

57%

3041-2285 (5326)

Flaznorp

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$5,188.41

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$944.02

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

fydiCTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$1,359.89

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$639.95

Record

—

1-1 (2)

SnakeBall

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$1,931.05

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$87.82

Record

48%

134-148 (282)

0xheavy888

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$1,087.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$53.05

Record

56%

72-57 (129)

RN1ARB<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$1,027.07

Value

$881.67

PnL

-$145.4

Record

58%

3695-2661 (6356)

Both legs:

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors$784.3376.2¢-$156.76

Portland Pilots$242.7437.3¢+$11.36

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$643.1

Value

$652.33

PnL

+$9.23

Record

56%

450-359 (809)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$376.62

Value

$486.13

PnL

+$112.1

Record

48%

24-26 (50)

Both legs:

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors$243.8163¢+$17.42

Portland Pilots$131.4819¢+$94.68

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$1,293.98

Value

$344.19

PnL

-$93.41

Record

48%

644-687 (1331)

Both legs:

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors$283.6976¢-$118.99

Portland Pilots$90.9130.4¢+$25.58

MadridTimeCTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$161.85

Value

$253.28

PnL

+$91.43

Record

24%

184-598 (782)

BoomLaLa

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$267.28

Value

$163.54

PnL

-$40.29

Record

12%

22-167 (189)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$151.67

Value

$149.59

PnL

-$2.08

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

VenusianCTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$67.22

Value

$101.87

PnL

+$34.65

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

VeryLucky888CTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$266

Value

$80

PnL

+$36

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

Pan9X

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$240.78

Value

$66.97

PnL

-$30.23

Record

48%

373-401 (774)

ojgCTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$54.85

Value

$38.77

PnL

-$6.82

Record

33%

65-135 (200)

cigarettes<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$30

Value

$30

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

LimousinCTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$9.2

Value

$16

PnL

+$6.8

Record

23%

185-620 (805)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$1.15

Value

PnL

+$0.85

Record

20%

116-466 (582)

Research grade

AvoidHawaii Rainbow Warriors at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawaii Rainbow Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.