Richmond Spiders vs. Temple Owls

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Richmond Spiders (33%) · Richmond Spiders at 77¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Richmond Spiders77¢Temple Owls23¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Richmond Spiders

Consensus Traders

Richmond Spiders 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$233.94

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 76.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidRichmond Spiders at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Richmond Spiders

6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Richmond Spiders77%

Temple Owls24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Richmond Spiders6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,168

Combined PnL+$241.85

Temple Owls12 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares8,511

Combined PnL-$7.92

Richmond Spiders — 33%Temple Owls — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Richmond Spidersavg 71.9¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$212.7	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Temple Owlsavg 44.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$58.59	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Temple Owlsavg 33.5¢	$1.2K	$924.64	-$280.21	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
└ Temple Owls leg	Temple Owlsavg 33.5¢	$920.93	$646.18	-$274.75
└ Richmond Spiders leg	Richmond Spidersavg 78¢	$283.92	$278.46	-$5.46
RN1	Richmond Spidersavg 82.1¢	$608.47	$593.1	-$15.37	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Richmond Spidersavg 83.9¢	$357.96	$326.43	-$31.53	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
nigiri99	Richmond Spidersavg 54¢	$180.45	$243.38	+$62.93	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
VE VenusianCTR	Temple Owlsavg 16.3¢	$162.71	$234.95	+$72.24	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
Painfulvoid	Richmond Spidersavg 50¢	$186.94	$200.03	+$13.09	53% 2026-1767 (3793)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Temple Owlsavg 46¢	$184	$184	+$0	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
VeryLucky888CTR	Temple Owlsavg 44.3¢	$207.26	$139.34	+$9.4	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
0xheavy888CTR	Temple Owlsavg 44.5¢	$308.01	$107.24	-$200.77	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
LI LimousinCTR	Temple Owlsavg 16¢	$66.75	$100.13	+$33.38	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Temple Owlsavg 17.4¢	$62.89	$84.87	+$21.98	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Temple Owlsavg 16¢	$57.14	$72.88	+$15.74	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Temple Owlsavg 19¢	$49.02	$61.92	+$12.9	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Temple Owlsavg 32.9¢	$87.43	$53.77	-$29.34	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Temple Owlsavg 38.7¢	$18.96	$10.7	-$2.06	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SE sentrio<$100	Richmond Spidersavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.68	+$0.03	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Temple Owlsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.33	+$0.03	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

Flaznorp

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$2,575.35

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$212.7

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Temple Owls

Invested

$2,074.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$58.59

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$1,204.85

Value

$924.64

PnL

-$280.21

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Both legs:

Temple Owls$920.9333.5¢-$274.75

Richmond Spiders$283.9278¢-$5.46

RN1

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$608.47

Value

$593.1

PnL

-$15.37

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$357.96

Value

$326.43

PnL

-$31.53

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

nigiri99

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$180.45

Value

$243.38

PnL

+$62.93

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

VenusianCTR

Temple Owls

Invested

$162.71

Value

$234.95

PnL

+$72.24

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

Painfulvoid

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$186.94

Value

$200.03

PnL

+$13.09

Record

53%

2026-1767 (3793)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Temple Owls

Invested

$184

Value

$184

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

VeryLucky888CTR

Temple Owls

Invested

$207.26

Value

$139.34

PnL

+$9.4

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

0xheavy888CTR

Temple Owls

Invested

$308.01

Value

$107.24

PnL

-$200.77

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

LimousinCTR

Temple Owls

Invested

$66.75

Value

$100.13

PnL

+$33.38

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$62.89

Value

$84.87

PnL

+$21.98

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$57.14

Value

$72.88

PnL

+$15.74

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$49.02

Value

$61.92

PnL

+$12.9

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$87.43

Value

$53.77

PnL

-$29.34

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$18.96

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$2.06

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

sentrio<$100

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Temple Owls

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

AvoidRichmond Spiders at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Richmond Spiders

6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Richmond Spiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.