Oklahoma vs. Florida

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (53%) · Oklahoma at 100¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 8

Oklahoma>99¢Florida<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma 53%

Total Value

$39.8K

Combined PnL

$-5.3K

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 99.6¢

+64% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma100%

Florida0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma10 traders

Total Value$25.4K

Total Shares36,666

Combined PnL+$644.64

Florida9 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares37,163

Combined PnL$-6.0K

Oklahoma — 53%Florida — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Oklahomaavg 71¢	$11.1K	$13.2K	+$2.1K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
VeryLucky888CTR	Floridaavg 68¢	$7.48	$5.1K	+$39.85	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Floridaavg 42.4¢	$6.8K	$4.4K	$-2.4K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
CM cm2897	Oklahomaavg 65.9¢	$2.0K	$3.0K	+$1.0K	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
JU Justluck9	Oklahomaavg 47.3¢	$4.0K	$2.9K	$-1.0K	41% 109-156 (265)
RN1CTR	Floridaavg 36¢	$4.8K	$2.1K	$-2.7K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Oklahomaavg 68.7¢	$3.1K	$1.6K	$-1.5K	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Oklahomaavg 76.5¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$278.83	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
PR primm	Oklahomaavg 34.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$12.88	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
BI BillBenter2026	Oklahomaavg 56.9¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$208.45	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Floridaavg 64¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	48% 405-446 (851)
OJ ojgCTR	Floridaavg 50.3¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	-$700.15	43% 838-1096 (1934)
TA takeormake	Oklahomaavg 72.8¢	$457.83	$605.3	+$147.48	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
PainfulvoidCTR	Floridaavg 36.7¢	$550.37	$532.5	-$17.87	54% 1878-1618 (3496)
US User7429<$100	Oklahomaavg 90¢	$28.03	$31	+$2.97	56% 9429-7491 (16920)
PA Pan9XCTR	Floridaavg 48.6¢	$292.79	$24.94	-$194.86	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Oklahomaavg 32¢	$10.56	$11.55	+$0.5	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR<$100	Floridaavg 2.6¢	$7.85	$1.38	-$6.47	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Floridaavg 68.7¢	$1.37	$1.28	-$0.01	46% 8770-10464 (19234)

ferrariChampions2026

Oklahoma

Invested

$11,080.12

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

VeryLucky888CTR

Florida

Invested

$7.48

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$39.85

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

6512395314597884CTR

Florida

Invested

$6,833.29

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

cm2897

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,981.87

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

Justluck9

Oklahoma

Invested

$3,966.63

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

41%

109-156 (265)

RN1CTR

Florida

Invested

$4,779.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Oklahoma

Invested

$3,145.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,706.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$278.83

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

primm

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,366.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$12.88

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

BillBenter2026

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,024.54

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$208.45

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Florida

Invested

$1,085

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

ojgCTR

Florida

Invested

$2,068.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$700.15

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

takeormake

Oklahoma

Invested

$457.83

Value

$605.3

PnL

+$147.48

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

PainfulvoidCTR

Florida

Invested

$550.37

Value

$532.5

PnL

-$17.87

Record

54%

1878-1618 (3496)

User7429<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$28.03

Value

$31

PnL

+$2.97

Record

56%

9429-7491 (16920)

Pan9XCTR

Florida

Invested

$292.79

Value

$24.94

PnL

-$194.86

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

SnakeBall<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$10.56

Value

$11.55

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

0xfFFF6537CTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$7.85

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$6.47

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.