FK Crvena zvezda leading at halftime?

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 97¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 5

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$226.64

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 96.5¢

+92% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 18 top traders (44%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,874

Combined PnL-$135.52

No8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,585

Combined PnL+$362.16

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GG ggA11xcrCTR	Yesavg 50.6¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$56.67	— 8-6 (14)
RN1	Noavg 50.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$1.72	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 54.9¢	$846.78	$1.0K	+$172.44	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 57.9¢	$213.44	$348.16	+$134.72	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
LI Limousin	Noavg 51.2¢	$73.06	$113.34	+$40.27	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 26.6¢	$62.08	$75.73	+$13.64	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 28.3¢	$46.09	$52.91	+$6.82	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 53.5¢	$42.49	$40.54	-$1.95	47% 10624-12137 (22761)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Yesavg 92.8¢	$72.51	$35.57	-$36.95	84% 14846-2866 (17712)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$27.06	$28.89	+$1.83	51% 37665-36890 (74555)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.9¢	$64.54	$15.42	-$49.13	47% 11692-13410 (25102)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$14.23	$14.13	-$0.1	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$10.78	$13.09	+$2.31	48% 5437-5947 (11384)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 25.4¢	$10.48	$9.92	-$0.56	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$4.5	$8.25	+$3.75	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$6.56	$7.97	+$1.41	57% 12701-9766 (22467)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Noavg 34.1¢	$9.75	$6.29	-$3.46	43% 2438-3297 (5735)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.68	-$0.03	50% 25814-25509 (51323)

ggA11xcrCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,701.46

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$56.67

Record

—

8-6 (14)

RN1

Invested

$2,090.9

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$1.72

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

Flaznorp

Invested

$846.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$172.44

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

MadridTime

Invested

$213.44

Value

$348.16

PnL

+$134.72

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

Limousin

Invested

$73.06

Value

$113.34

PnL

+$40.27

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$62.08

Value

$75.73

PnL

+$13.64

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$46.09

Value

$52.91

PnL

+$6.82

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.49

Value

$40.54

PnL

-$1.95

Record

47%

10624-12137 (22761)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.51

Value

$35.57

PnL

-$36.95

Record

84%

14846-2866 (17712)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.06

Value

$28.89

PnL

+$1.83

Record

51%

37665-36890 (74555)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.54

Value

$15.42

PnL

-$49.13

Record

47%

11692-13410 (25102)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.23

Value

$14.13

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.78

Value

$13.09

PnL

+$2.31

Record

48%

5437-5947 (11384)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$10.48

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.56

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.56

Value

$7.97

PnL

+$1.41

Record

57%

12701-9766 (22467)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Invested

$9.75

Value

$6.29

PnL

-$3.46

Record

43%

2438-3297 (5735)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 18 top traders (44%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.