Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FURIA, while the market favors Vitality (68%). 8 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)

8 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (40%) · FURIA at 32¢ · $104K held · ends Nov 12

Vitality68¢FURIA32¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$103.6K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 32¢

-47% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

8 of 20 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Vitality 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality68%

FURIA32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA8 traders

Total Value$38.2K

Total Shares113,996

Combined PnL$-30.7K

Vitality12 traders

Total Value$63.1K

Total Shares97,059

Combined PnL+$24.9K

FURIA — 40%Vitality — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperVitality 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrVitality 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedVitality 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vitality 60% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	FURIAavg 60.6¢	$39.8K	$23.3K	$-16.5K	0% 0-28 (28)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Vitalityavg 39¢	$9.8K	$16.3K	+$6.5K	61% 1010-637 (1647)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258	Vitalityavg 39¢	$7.8K	$13.0K	+$5.2K	— 5-2 (7)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FURIAavg 61.1¢	$24.5K	$12.0K	$-12.5K	54% 138-116 (254)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Vitalityavg 39¢	$6.5K	$10.9K	+$4.4K	51% 723-701 (1424)
HomelessnHoeless	Vitalityavg 39¢	$3.9K	$6.5K	+$2.6K	— 5-5 (10)
relativesignificance	Vitalityavg 39¢	$2.9K	$4.8K	+$1.9K	56% 147-116 (263)
drainedandpoor	Vitalityavg 38¢	$2.6K	$4.5K	+$1.9K	47% 418-464 (882)
RA Rayaya	Vitalityavg 41¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$940	— 5-3 (8)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	FURIAavg 59¢	$3.8K	$2.3K	$-1.6K	54% 181-157 (338)
BananaFarmer	Vitalityavg 39¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$782.23	— 5-5 (10)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	FURIAavg 47.7¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$155.38	58% 43-31 (74)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 41.1¢	$546.51	$831.11	+$284.6
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 47.7¢	$603.31	$474.09	-$129.22
PA Partyarty91	Vitalityavg 40¢	$646.03	$1.0K	+$403.77	0% 0-74 (74)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	FURIAavg 39¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$54.86	52% 1960-1815 (3775)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 39¢	$815.99	$732.96	-$83.04
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 58.6¢	$256.37	$284.54	+$28.17
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Vitalityavg 41¢	$452.03	$711.13	+$259.09	39% 9-14 (23)
SU suntori	Vitalityavg 70¢	$521.76	$453.62	-$57.19	47% 1377-1532 (2909)
alpheclabs2CTR	FURIAavg 36.2¢	$360.97	$349.34	-$11.62	44% 151-193 (344)
ZZ Zzzz87	Vitalityavg 40¢	$214.8	$346.37	+$131.57	62% 40-25 (65)
fyrskenCTR	FURIAavg 61¢	$305	$150	-$155	47% 21-24 (45)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	FURIAavg 44¢	$53.2	$42.9	-$10.3	37% 427-722 (1149)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	FURIAavg 45¢	$28.13	$24.54	-$3.59	55% 375-311 (686)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	FURIAavg 59¢	$5.9	$3.5	-$2.4	67% 1692-845 (2537)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

FURIA

Invested

$39,837.02

Value

$23.3K

PnL

$-16.5K

Record

0-28 (28)

PacersThreeandahalf

Vitality

Invested

$9,785.06

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

61%

1010-637 (1647)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258

Vitality

Invested

$7,799.96

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

—

5-2 (7)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FURIA

Invested

$24,518.05

Value

$12.0K

PnL

$-12.5K

Record

54%

138-116 (254)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Vitality

Invested

$6,532.36

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

51%

723-701 (1424)

HomelessnHoeless

Vitality

Invested

$3,899.96

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

—

5-5 (10)

relativesignificance

Vitality

Invested

$2,891.75

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

56%

147-116 (263)

drainedandpoor

Vitality

Invested

$2,615.24

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

47%

418-464 (882)

Rayaya

Vitality

Invested

$1,640

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$940

Record

—

5-3 (8)

ChonkVisionCTR

FURIA

Invested

$3,824.34

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

181-157 (338)

BananaFarmer

Vitality

Invested

$1,173.34

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$782.23

Record

—

5-5 (10)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$1,149.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$155.38

Record

58%

43-31 (74)

Both legs:

Vitality$546.5141.1¢+$284.6

FURIA$603.3147.7¢-$129.22

Partyarty91

Vitality

Invested

$646.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$403.77

Record

0-74 (74)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$1,072.36

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$54.86

Record

52%

1960-1815 (3775)

Both legs:

FURIA$815.9939¢-$83.04

Vitality$256.3758.6¢+$28.17

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Vitality

Invested

$452.03

Value

$711.13

PnL

+$259.09

Record

39%

9-14 (23)

suntori

Vitality

Invested

$521.76

Value

$453.62

PnL

-$57.19

Record

47%

1377-1532 (2909)

alpheclabs2CTR

FURIA

Invested

$360.97

Value

$349.34

PnL

-$11.62

Record

44%

151-193 (344)

Zzzz87

Vitality

Invested

$214.8

Value

$346.37

PnL

+$131.57

Record

62%

40-25 (65)

fyrskenCTR

FURIA

Invested

$305

Value

$150

PnL

-$155

Record

47%

21-24 (45)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$53.2

Value

$42.9

PnL

-$10.3

Record

37%

427-722 (1149)

NotJumpCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$28.13

Value

$24.54

PnL

-$3.59

Record

55%

375-311 (686)

RLWGCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$5.9

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$2.4

Record

67%

1692-845 (2537)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

8 of 20 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Vitality 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperVitality 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrVitality 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedVitality 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vitality 60% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.